Bernstein analysts reiterated a bullish long-term outlook for bitcoin, calling the present bitcoin worth downturn the “weakest bear case” within the asset’s historical past and sustaining a $150,000 worth goal by the top of 2026.
The analysis and brokerage agency argued that the current drawdown displays a disaster of confidence fairly than structural harm to bitcoin’s community or funding thesis.
“What we’re experiencing is the weakest bitcoin bear case in its historical past,” the analysts wrote, including that not one of the typical catalysts behind previous crypto winters have emerged.
Bernstein stated earlier bear markets have been pushed by main failures, hidden leverage, or systemic breakdowns. This cycle, the agency sees no comparable blowups or widespread insolvencies.
As a substitute, analysts pointed to rising institutional alignment as a key distinction. They cited help from a pro-bitcoin U.S. political setting, increasing adoption of spot BTC ETFs, rising company treasury participation, and continued involvement from massive asset managers.
The agency argued that bitcoin’s broader adoption story stays intact regardless of market weak spot.
Bernstein additionally addressed criticism that bitcoin has lagged gold throughout the newest interval of macro volatility. They stated BTC continues to commerce primarily as a liquidity-sensitive danger asset fairly than a mature protected haven.
They famous that elevated rates of interest and tighter monetary situations have concentrated positive aspects in choose areas comparable to treasured metals and AI-linked equities.
Bernstein stated BTC ETF infrastructure and company capital-raising channels stay positioned to soak up renewed liquidity if situations ease.
Reporting from The Block helped with the protection of this evaluation.
Bernstein stays bullish on bitcoin; quantum fears dismissed.
The analysts additionally pushed again towards claims that BTC is shedding relevance in an financial system formed by synthetic intelligence.
They argued that blockchains and programmable wallets might play a central position in an rising “agentic” digital setting, the place autonomous software program brokers require international, machine-readable monetary rails. Conventional banking techniques, they stated, stay constrained by closed APIs and legacy integration boundaries.
On quantum computing, Bernstein acknowledged that future cryptographic threats warrant preparation however stated BTC isn’t uniquely uncovered.
The agency argued that each one important digital techniques face comparable dangers and can transition towards quantum-resistant requirements collectively.
These ideas echo that of Technique, on Technique’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings name, Govt Chairman Michael Saylor stated the corporate will launch a Bitcoin Safety Program geared toward coordinating with the broader cyber and crypto group.
The message echoed Technique’s view that quantum computing isn’t a right away menace, however a future engineering problem that the community could have time to deal with.
Saylor framed quantum fears as the most recent model of “FUD,” arguing that many main industries nonetheless depend on the identical cryptographic foundations BTC makes use of as we speak. He pointed to ongoing international funding in quantum-resistant analysis and stated the Bitcoin ecosystem is already exploring upgrades that would strengthen the protocol if wanted.
He emphasised that any main change would require broad international consensus, in line with Bitcoin’s historical past of adapting by means of technical and regulatory strain.
Bernstein added that BTC’s clear codebase and the rising involvement of well-capitalized stakeholders place it to adapt alongside different monetary and governmental techniques.
Bernstein additionally dismissed issues about leveraged company bitcoin accumulation and the danger of miner capitulation.
The analysts stated main bitcoin-holding corporations have structured liabilities to resist extended downturns.
They pointed to feedback from Technique executives that solely an excessive state of affairs — BTC falling to $8,000 and remaining there for 5 years — would require stability sheet restructuring.
Bernstein maintained that the selloff represents sentiment weak spot fairly than systemic failure, and reiterated its forecast for bitcoin to achieve $150,000 by the top of 2026.
On the time of writing, BTC is buying and selling barely beneath $70,000.