Bitcoin slid to $59,930 on Friday, its lowest degree since October 2024, earlier than rebounding
Kaiko Analysis stated the 32% drawdown was the biggest correction for the reason that 2024 halving and should characterize a “midway level” in a traditionally typical bear section that lasts about 12 months.
Kaiko flags post-halving shift
In a observe shared Monday, Kaiko stated the market seems to have moved out of the euphoric post-halving section and towards key technical assist that might decide whether or not the four-year cycle framework holds.
Kaiko wrote:
“Evaluation of on-chain metrics and comparative efficiency throughout tokens reveals a market approaching important technical assist ranges that can decide whether or not the four-year cycle framework stays intact.”
Quantity and leverage cool off
Kaiko pointed to a 30% drop in combination spot buying and selling quantity throughout the ten main centralized exchanges, from about $1 trillion in October 2025 to $700 billion in November.
It additionally famous mixed bitcoin and ether futures open curiosity fell from $29 billion to $25 billion over the previous week, a 14% decline that Kaiko attributed to deleveraging.
Is $60,000 the underside?
Kaiko stated a 52% retracement from the prior all-time excessive is “unusually shallow” versus prior bear markets.
It argued a 60% to 68% drawdown would higher match historic patterns, implying a possible backside within the $40,000 to $50,000 vary.
That aligns with deeper historic pullbacks tracked on Bitbo’s worth drawdown from all-time excessive chart.
Nansen analysis analyst Nicolai Sondergaard stated it stays troublesome to conclude the cycle has totally reverted.
Sondergaard instructed Cointelegraph:
“With that stated, it’s nonetheless very exhausting to say if it means we’re going again to the traditional 4-year cycle. I’ve seen many outstanding figures within the area air the thought, however equally many who don’t assume so.”
The $60,000 space additionally roughly aligns with bitcoin’s long-term assist zone close to the 200-week shifting common.
MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe individually described the transfer to $60,000 as a neighborhood backside, citing a pointy drop within the relative power index.
4-year cycle debate continues
MEXC Analysis chief analyst Shawn Younger stated catalysts that drove bitcoin’s rally to $126,000 should still be in place.
Younger stated:
“With oversold indicators rising on a number of timeframes, the rebound dialog round BTC is extra a query of when, not if.”