Bitcoin (BTC) might get well from its ongoing droop and attain $150,000 by the 12 months’s finish, in keeping with a current Bernstein outlook.
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin should maintain the 200-week SMA and see new-investor flows flip optimistic.
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Sidelined capital should move again into crypto, and the quantum risk must be addressed.
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Extra fee cuts from the Fed in 2026 will deliver risk-on traders again to BTC.
Bitcoin should maintain above this key pattern line
One situation that has persistently outlined Bitcoin’s transition from bear markets to new bull cycles is the value motion across the 200-week easy shifting common (200-week SMA, the blue wave).
Traditionally, this wave has acted as a magnet throughout deep drawdowns and a strong ground as soon as promoting stress subsides.
In each 2015 and 2018, Bitcoin bottomed close to the 200-week SMA earlier than getting into multiyear uptrends. The 2022 bear market noticed BTC worth briefly breaking under it, however the failure proved short-lived.
Bitcoin holding above the 200-week SMA will cut back the percentages of a chronic, 2022-style capitulation, whereas protecting the trail open for a brand new bull section.
Bitcoin’s new investor flows should return
One other prerequisite for a sustained bull run is a reversal in new investor flows.
As of February, wallets monitoring first-time and short-term holders present roughly $2.7 billion in cumulative outflows, the very best since 2022.
In wholesome bull markets, pullbacks appeal to recent capital and speed up participation. Nonetheless, within the present market, the other is going on, in keeping with IT Tech, a CryptoQuant-associated onchain analyst.
“Present readings resemble post-ATH transitions, during which marginal patrons exit and worth is pushed by inside rotation, not internet inflows,” the analyst wrote in a Tuesday put up.
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In prior cycles, together with 2020, 2021 and 2022, sustained bullish reversals solely emerged as soon as new-investor flows flipped decisively again into optimistic territory.
The identical should occur in 2026 to make a robust bull case for Bitcoin. Bitcoin ETF internet flows turned optimistic on Monday, which might be a primary signal that these investor flows are beginning to come again.
Sidelined Tether should move again into crypto
Tether’s (USDT) share of the overall crypto market has risen in current weeks to check a well-recognized 8.5%–9.0% resistance zone.
Rising USDT dominance means traders are parking cash in stablecoins and avoiding danger. Falling dominance normally alerts the other: capital rotating again into Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Since November 2022, clear pullbacks from this 8%–9% space have aligned with robust Bitcoin rebounds.
One rejection was adopted by a 76% rally over 140 days, whereas one other preceded 169% features over 180 days. The same setup occurred from 2020 to 2022, when the important thing ceiling sat close to 4.5%–5.75%.
USDT dominance broke above that vary in Could 2022, and Bitcoin then fell by 45%, additional reflecting the inverse correlation between the 2.
Because of this, Tether dominance should fall to start out a brand new Bitcoin bull run.
Quantum fears should subside
One other headwind to beat for Bitcoin is the potential quantum risk. These are theories that future quantum computer systems might break Bitcoin’s cryptography, placing BTC wallets in danger.
Some observe that 25% of Bitcoin addresses are already in danger.
A number of security-focused sources body this as a risk that’s nonetheless far off sooner or later.
For instance, in November 2025, cryptographer and Blockstream CEO Adam Again stated Bitcoin faces no significant quantum risk for “20 to 40 years,” including the community may be “quantum prepared” effectively earlier than it turns into an actual downside.
Bitcoin Optech additionally famous that near-term quantum danger could be concentrated in edge circumstances, similar to reused addresses, moderately than your complete community directly.
For Bitcoin to construct a bull case in 2026, this risk should be addressed for patrons to regain confidence.
Doing simply that, Coinbase and Technique have launched initiatives, bringing in specialists and mapping out a roadmap for Bitcoin safety upgrades.
Extra fee cuts by the Fed
Bitcoin’s possibilities of re-entering a bull cycle in 2026 enhance if the US Federal Reserve delivers at the least two fee cuts subsequent 12 months, which is what CME futures pricing was presently implying as of February.
Decrease charges typically cut back the enchantment of yield-bearing property like U.S. Treasurys, pushing traders to hunt increased returns elsewhere. That shift tends to favor danger property, together with equities and cryptocurrencies.
Donald Trump might push the brand new Fed chair for 3 fee cuts in 2026, in keeping with Lee Ferridge, strategist at State Road Corp.
Three fee cuts this 12 months might additional improve Bitcoin’s enchantment amongst danger merchants.
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