The inside track: Bitcoin is on tempo for a fifth straight month-to-month drop if February closes purple, its longest dropping streak since 2018, whereas spot ETF flows flip persistently unfavourable, reinforcing a brand new actuality: post-ETF BTC is buying and selling like a rates-and-risk instrument. If it does not reverse in March and reclaim $80k, it would equal its worst interval ever.
Bitcoin has closed decrease in every of the previous 4 months, and February is unfavourable mid-month, organising a fifth straight month-to-month decline.
That consequence would mark Bitcoin’s longest month-to-month dropping streak in six years, a stretch now being framed much less as chart trivia and extra as a macro stress check for the post-ETF market construction.
Information exhibits October 2025 by means of January 2026 every completed down, with November’s loss the deepest within the run.
February opened close to $78,626 earlier than buying and selling within the excessive $60,000s round mid-month.
As of press time. Bitcoin trades at roughly $68,800, about 44–45% beneath the October peak at $126,000, and 12.6% down for the month.
The all-time file for month-to-month drawdowns sits at 6 months from January 2017 to August 2018. Bitcoin would equal that file if March additionally ends negatively.
Charges expectations and ETF flows
The drawdown arrived alongside a repricing in charges expectations that has saved danger belongings delicate to every incremental change within the “larger for longer” path, in response to Ned Davis Analysis figures cited by Enterprise Insider.
Fed funds futures proceed to lean towards a maintain into March 2026, with odds closely weighted towards no change.
A stickier coverage path tends to lift the hurdle for duration-like trades, and Bitcoin’s latest correlation profile has left it buying and selling as a macro beta expression in lots of portfolios, significantly when fairness volatility rises.
That macro channel is now being bolstered by the ETF wrapper itself.
Latest spot Bitcoin ETF buying and selling periods are skewing unfavourable, with roughly $2 billion in internet outflows over the past 3 weeks and a number of single-day totals within the a whole lot of tens of millions.
On this regime, draw back can persist and not using a crypto-specific catalyst if redemptions and risk-parity-style de-risking maintain pressuring the tape.
On-chain value foundation defines key ranges
Glassnode’s newest on-chain work frames the selloff as a tightening contest between overhead provide and cost-basis assist.
The agency mentioned the True Market Imply close to $80,200 has acted as overhead resistance, whereas the Realized Value close to $55,800 has served as traditionally confirmable “re-engagement” territory throughout deeper resets.
Between these poles, Glassnode maps a dense cost-basis zone round $66,900–$70,600, a band that has functioned as a near-term reference for whether or not holders are defending combination entry factors or capitulating into lower-liquidity pockets.
These ranges present a easy ahead hall for the following one to 3 months as a result of they line up with what different market commentary is already watching.
I’ve advised a number of occasions that the seemingly market backside for this cycle sits round $49,000, and the earlier Bitcoin hits that stage, the extra seemingly it’s to steadily climb again into the 2028 halving.
Barron’s described a $55,000–$60,000 space as a believable volatility zone, pointing to the convergence of the 200-day transferring common close to $58,000 and an estimated common buy value round $56,000 as potential anchors if promoting accelerates.
Put otherwise, from roughly $68,800, the market is debating a path again towards the $80,200 “imply” space versus a slide towards the $55,800 realized-price area.
Every transfer represents a high-teens proportion swing.
| Path (subsequent 4–12 weeks) | What would wish to vary | Ranges in focus (sources) | Vary framing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stabilization and vary commerce | Outflows gradual, macro doesn’t tighten additional, cost-basis patrons defend entries | $66,900–$70,600 assist; ~$80,200 overhead (Glassnode) | ~$65,000–$82,000 (Glassnode) |
| Deeper deleveraging | Value-basis band fails, risk-off persists, pressured promoting expands | $60,000 retest, then ~$55,800 realized value (Glassnode); $55,000–$60,000 zone (Barron’s) | ~$55,000–$60,000, with decrease stress tails mentioned beneath |
| Reclaim | Macro tone eases and inflows return, value recaptures overhead provide | Reclaim ~$80,200 (Glassnode) | ~$80,000–$95,000+ (level-dependent) |
The draw back tails being circulated are additionally explicitly macro-linked.
Ned Davis Analysis, through Enterprise Insider, framed a “crypto winter” stress case utilizing prior bear-market averages (about 84% drawdowns over roughly 225 days), which might place Bitcoin close to $31,000 if historical past have been to rhyme on the excessive.
A separate Enterprise Insider report cited a Zacks strategist outlining a $40,000 path over three to 6 months, tying the situation to liquidity situations and the period of prior winter durations.
These are usually not consensus targets, however they operate as boundary markers for a way far macro-driven de-risking can journey when flows and positioning are one-sided.
For the rest of February, the calendar itself turns into the set off.
A purple month-to-month shut would formalize a five-month run of declines and achieve this at a time when ETF stream persistence, on-chain cost-basis protection, and fed-funds pricing all level to Bitcoin buying and selling as a rates-and-risk instrument relatively than a standalone idiosyncratic market.