On CryptoQuant, there’s a metric referred to as the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator.
That is an indicator that measures the momentum of Bitcoin’s bull/bear market cycle.
Technically, it’s calculated because the distinction between the P&L index and its 365-day transferring common.
In flip, the P&L index of CryptoQuant makes use of the MVRV ratio, NUPL, and LTH/STH SOPR to create a single value valuation indicator for Bitcoin.
The P&L index measures whether or not the value of Bitcoin at a given second is overvalued, impartial, or undervalued, whereas the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator assesses whether or not it’s at the moment inside a bull cycle or a bear cycle.
The P&L Index
Till early October 2025, the P&L index of CryptoQuant was in optimistic territory.
That is an index that has traditionally fluctuated between -3.2 factors and +1.6 factors, however all through 2025 it by no means managed to rise above 1.2.
Throughout the earlier bull runs, nevertheless, it had reached a peak above 1.6 factors in November 2023, and one above 1.4 factors in December 2017.
In 2021, it had managed to briefly surpass 1.3 factors, however all through 2025, it by no means managed to exceed the 1 mark.
Virtually since March 2021, it hasn’t exceeded 1.2 factors, which CryptoQuant considers the brink past which it may be deemed overvalued. To be trustworthy, this threshold appears set a bit too low, a lot so that in 2025 it barely managed to surpass 0.9 factors.
It’s price noting, nevertheless, that in November 2022 it fell under -1.8 factors, though the historic low was reached in 2015 at -3.2.
Originally of February this yr, it dropped to -0.8, which is a low degree however not extraordinarily low, whereas now it’s nonetheless in adverse territory (-0.5) however, to be trustworthy, not very low. In accordance with CryptoQuant, due to this fact, the present value of BTC shouldn’t be thought-about undervalued.
The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator
The true information is that the present worth of CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is at its lowest because the FTX backside of 2022.
In reality, the present degree of the P&L index is under -0.5, whereas its 365-day transferring common is roughly +0.4.
For the reason that Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator measures the distinction between the P&L index and its 365-day transferring common, it’s at the moment very low, under -0.9 factors. In reality, on February fifth, it reached a neighborhood low of -1.2 factors, aligning with the minimal peak recorded in March 2020 on the onset of the pandemic.
To be trustworthy, although, in 2022 the bottom level was reached at almost -2 factors, which is considerably decrease than the place it’s now. Nonetheless, not solely had it by no means fallen under -0.8 since January 2023, however till November 2025, it had by no means dropped under -0.3.
Subsequently, the present state of affairs will not be much like that of November 2022, however it’s nonetheless decidedly adverse. In reality, it intently resembles the early months of 2022, earlier than the Could crash attributable to the implosion of the Terra-Luna crypto ecosystem.
The Forecasts
In idea, this indicator will not be used for making predictions.
Nonetheless, the comparability with the previous certainly suggests similarities with that 2022, which was the final yr of a significant bear-market for Bitcoin’s value.
That mentioned, from this angle, 2025 doesn’t appear in any respect much like 2021.
In 2020, this index returned to optimistic in Could, then surged in July, corrected barely in September, and surged once more in October. The height was reached in January 2021, and it remained at excessive ranges till April.
It fell under zero in Could, then climbed again above zero in October, and dropped under once more in November.
This time, nevertheless, throughout 2025, it was above zero for just a few months and by no means exceeded 0.3 factors.
Moreover, it had already returned above zero in January 2023, remaining there uninterruptedly till August 2024.
In different phrases, though the early months of 2026 resemble the early months of 2022, 2025 seems very totally different from 2021, simply as 2024 was very totally different from 2020 and 2023 from 2019.
This chart clearly reveals us the way it can’t be used to challenge previous efficiency into the long run, because it typically finally ends up behaving otherwise.
The bear market
What is definite, nevertheless, is that the value of Bitcoin is at the moment in a bear market.
What stays fully unclear is how lengthy this bear-market will final, and the way far the value will go.
Up to now, main bear markets have at all times lasted no less than 12 months, however there’s no assure that historical past will repeat itself. Simply as 2025 was totally different from 2021, and 2021 was totally different from 2017, there’s no purpose to imagine that 2026 will essentially resemble 2022 or 2018.
In reality, since 2023, the cycle appears to be progressing forward of schedule, in some instances even by a number of months.
In idea, due to this fact, it can’t be fully dominated out that on this February 2026 native lows much like these of Could or June 2022 might have been reached, regardless that within the second half of that yr an additional decline occurred.