Change-traded fund issuers Bitwise and GraniteShares have filed with the US Securities and Change Fee to launch funds tied to occasion contracts on the end result of US elections.
Bitwise filed a prospectus on Tuesday for a brand new lineup of ETFs branded as PredictionShares, with six prediction market-style ETFs on NYSE Arca.
The primary two funds can pay out if both a Democrat or a Republican wins the U.S. presidential election in November 2028. The subsequent two can pay out if both Democrats or Republicans win the Senate in November 2026, and the ultimate two if both occasion wins the Home.
“The fund’s funding goal is to offer capital appreciation to traders within the occasion {that a} member of the Democratic Occasion is the winner of the US Presidential election going down on November 7, 2028,” learn the prospectus.
Every fund invests at the least 80% of its web property in binary occasion contracts, or political prediction market derivatives traded on CFTC-regulated exchanges. These contracts settle at $1 if the referenced consequence happens and $0 if it doesn’t.
“Within the occasion {that a} member of the Democratic Occasion isn’t the winner of the 2028 Presidential election, the fund will lose considerably all of its worth,” it defined.
Betting on a prediction market wrapped in an ETF
In essence, Bitwise is providing separate ETFs for every race — one for every occasion — and traders can select which one to purchase into.
The value of every fund’s shares on any given day displays the market’s implied chance of that consequence, fluctuating between $0 and $1 primarily based on polling, information, and sentiment.
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ETF issuer GraniteShares additionally filed a prospectus on Tuesday providing six comparable funds with the identical constructions primarily based on US election outcomes.
“The financialization and ETF-ization of every thing continues,” commented Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.
Not the primary prediction market-style ETF filings
“This isn’t the primary submitting of this type, and I feel it is extraordinarily unlikely that these would be the final,” added Seyffart, in reference to the Roundhill submitting for comparable funds on Feb. 14.
The Roundhill prospectus additionally affords six prediction market-style ETFs primarily based on the outcomes of the presidential, Senate, and Home elections.
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