Zach Anderson
Feb 19, 2026 16:23
Pantera Capital leads Novig’s $75M Sequence B because the sports activities prediction market stories 10x quantity progress and pursues CFTC approval for nationwide operations.
Pantera Capital is main a $75 million Sequence B spherical in Novig, the peer-to-peer sports activities prediction market that is positioning itself because the anti-DraftKings. The deal values the corporate at $500 million and brings complete funding previous $105 million.
The timing is not unintentional. Novig reported 10x progress in buying and selling quantity via 2025, now exceeding $4 billion annualized. These numbers caught Pantera’s consideration—they usually inform a narrative about the place prediction markets are literally creating wealth.
The Sports activities Betting Drawback
Here is what conventional sportsbooks do not promote: solely about 2% of their customers flip a revenue. The remaining? They’re feeding the home edge.
Novig’s pitch is structural, not simply advertising and marketing. By operating a peer-to-peer change quite than appearing because the counterparty, they’ve reportedly pushed that profitability charge to 23% of customers. The platform claims 5% higher odds than conventional books—a margin that compounds shortly for energetic merchants.
“The home at all times wins as a result of it owns the principles,” Pantera wrote of their funding announcement. “Novig’s betting that they’ll change the principles.”
The Regulatory Play
What makes this fascinating past the sports activities angle: Novig is actively pursuing CFTC approval as a Designated Contract Market. If granted, they’d function federally throughout all 50 states—sidestepping the patchwork of state playing rules that presently fragments the business.
The corporate pivoted to a sweepstakes mannequin in late 2024 to navigate current rules, utilizing digital currencies that convert to fiat. However the DCM utility alerts larger ambitions. CFTC oversight would legitimize the change mannequin and doubtlessly open institutional participation.
Based in 2021 by Jacob Fortinsky and Kelechi Ukah, Novig focuses completely on North American leagues—NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAA, and UFC. Their order-book mannequin mirrors monetary exchanges, matching opposing bets quite than setting home odds.
Why Pantera Cares
Sports activities betting represents over 90% of prediction market quantity on main platforms, based on Dune Analytics information. Whereas political prediction markets grabbed headlines in 2024, the true cash flows via sports activities.
Novig’s income mannequin aligns with this thesis. They make cash on liquidity and commissions, not person losses. That is a essentially completely different incentive construction than DraftKings or FanDuel—and one that would scale with international liquidity quite than in opposition to it.
The CFTC determination would be the subsequent main catalyst. Approval would validate the prediction market mannequin for sports activities on the federal stage and doubtlessly set off a wave of comparable functions from rivals.
Picture supply: Shutterstock