Bitcoin enters the ultimate week of February on fragile footing, with macro forces (US financial occasions) as soon as once more dictating short-term route.
After final week’s blended alerts, together with moderating PCE inflation, resilient jobless claims at 206,000, and cautious FOMC minutes, markets stay undecided on the tempo of fee cuts forward of the March 17–18 Federal Reserve assembly.
4 US Financial Occasions That Merchants Are Watching Carefully
With fee expectations finely balanced, this week’s financial calendar may inject contemporary volatility into crypto markets.
Fed Officers Take the Stage
A crowded slate of Federal Reserve speeches runs from Monday by way of Wednesday, that includes Governors Christopher Waller and Lisa Prepare dinner, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and others.
With markets presently pricing in two to a few cuts in 2026, any deviation in tone may rapidly shift fee expectations.
Traditionally, Waller and Bostic have leaned hawkish, emphasizing vigilance in opposition to inflation and information dependence.
In the event that they reiterate considerations about “last-mile” disinflation or sign endurance on cuts, Treasury yields may rise alongside the US greenback. Such an consequence may stress Bitcoin and probably push it decrease.
Conversely, dovish commentary highlighting slowing development or labor softening may weaken the greenback and spark a reduction rally in threat property.
Clustered appearances additionally enhance the danger of intraday swings, significantly if messaging lacks cohesion. For Bitcoin merchants, tone, not coverage motion, would be the key volatility set off this week.
Shopper Confidence
The Convention Board’s February Shopper Confidence Index follows January’s weak 84.5 studying, effectively beneath expectations and traditionally in keeping with recessionary alerts.
February is projected to enhance modestly to 87.5, although sentiment stays subdued amid elevated residing prices and protracted inflation.
Final week’s PCE information confirmed inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, with core at 3.0%, reflecting lingering worth pressures.
A stronger-than-expected confidence print, significantly above 90, would reinforce a resilient client narrative and strengthen the “no-landing” thesis.
That might cut back near-term fee minimize expectations, raise the greenback, and weigh modestly on Bitcoin.
Then again, a draw back shock beneath 85 would spotlight financial fragility. That consequence would doubtless enhance rate-cut odds, that are presently elevated for March, and supply tailwinds for BTC.
Traditionally, confidence surprises have triggered 1–2% strikes in Bitcoin, significantly when aligned with broader macro developments.
Preliminary Jobless Claims
In the meantime, preliminary jobless claims stay one of many timeliest indicators of the labor market. Final week’s drop to 206,000 shocked to the draw back, reinforcing a good employment backdrop that has stored the Fed cautious about easing prematurely. Consensus now expects 215,000.
If claims fall beneath 210,000, it will sign ongoing labor energy and probably embolden hawkish Fed voices.
That situation may raise yields and modestly stress Bitcoin. Robust employment information tends to delay fee minimize expectations, decreasing liquidity assist for threat property.
Conversely, a spike above 225,000 would increase considerations about labor cooling, significantly if paired with softer enterprise surveys.
Such a improvement may gasoline recession fears and enhance the likelihood of fee cuts—supportive for Bitcoin as merchants anticipate simpler monetary situations.
Although weekly claims sometimes generate 0.5–1.5% BTC volatility, the response may very well be amplified if the info contrasts sharply with earlier Fed commentary.
PPI (Producer Worth Index)
January’s PPI (Producer Worth Index) will shut out the week, with headline and core readings anticipated round 3.0% year-over-year.
Following final week’s PCE launch, PPI presents upstream perception into inflationary pressures earlier than they attain shoppers.
A warmer-than-expected core studying above 3.2% would doubtless reignite inflation considerations and diminish fee minimize bets. That situation may mirror post-PCE weak spot seen lately, pressuring Bitcoin by strengthening the greenback and lifting actual yields.
Nevertheless, a cooler print beneath 2.8% would reinforce disinflation momentum. Markets would doubtless worth in additional aggressive easing, weakening the USD, and probably pushing Bitcoin towards $70,000.
As a month-end launch, PPI typically solidifies weekly developments. Mixed with jobless claims, it may produce 2–3% Bitcoin swings if expectations are materially challenged.
With Bitcoin’s correlation to the Nasdaq and the US greenback close to multi-month highs, macro stays the dominant narrative.
If this week’s information skews dovish, BTC may rally 3–5%. A unified hawkish tone, nevertheless, could set off a pullback of comparable magnitude. Liquidity expectations, not crypto fundamentals, stay in management.