Former CoinRoutes CEO Dave Weisberger argued in an X put up on February 23 that Bitcoin’s early-2026 hashrate rebound is greater than a mining-cycle restoration and could also be a lagging sign of a broader value transfer forward. His core thesis is that sovereign-linked mining exercise is beginning to play for Bitcoin the identical structural position central financial institution gold shopping for performed for gold earlier than its breakout.
Weisberger frames the comparability by way of the latest gold cycle, the place he says sovereign accumulation preceded value discovery by years. In his telling, the important thing sign was not ETF demand or retail flows, however central banks steadily including reserves as geopolitical fragmentation and fiat-risk considerations rose.
“The outcome? A parabolic gold rally that few noticed coming in actual time,” he wrote. “Gold has surged to document highs properly north of $5,000/oz on this cycle, leaving the ‘it’s simply inflation’ crowd scrambling. The shopping for got here first. The worth discovery adopted later.”
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Why Bitcoin’s Hashrate Restoration Is Signalling The Subsequent Rally
Making use of that framework to Bitcoin, Weisberger factors to what he describes as a “textbook V-shaped restoration” in community hashrate in early 2026. After a pointy pullback of roughly 15% to twenty% from prior peaks, he says computational energy rebounded from beneath 900 EH/s to above 1 ZH/s, accompanied by one of many largest absolute problem will increase on document, at practically 15%.
For Weisberger, that restoration is not only a post-stress normalization after winter curtailments, regional shutdowns, and post-halving margin compression. He argues it displays a special class of miner stepping in. “This isn’t random noise. It’s the direct footprint of sovereign mining stepping in the place personal miners hesitated,” he wrote.
A central a part of the put up is Weisberger’s declare that at the very least 13 nation-states are actually mining Bitcoin at a governmental or state-linked degree (backed by VanEck analysis). He cites Bhutan, the UAE, and El Salvador, and in addition names Russia, Iran, and Ethiopia as nations deploying power property into mining.
“These are usually not retail and even company miners chasing every day hashprice,” he wrote. “These are governments changing stranded or strategic power into a transportable, verifiable, seizure-resistant reserve asset. They mine for coverage causes: income with out printing extra native forex, community safety through which they maintain a direct stake, and positioning in a world the place monetary sovereignty issues.”
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Weisberger argues sovereign miners function with totally different constraints than personal miners: longer time horizons, totally different value of capital, and fewer must promote output into market weak spot. In that framework, sovereign mining turns into a mechanism for absorbing newly issued BTC instantly into long-term holdings, lowering sell-side stress whereas additionally strengthening community safety.
Weisberger explicitly describes hashrate restoration as a lagged, not coincident, indicator, as a result of sovereign mining enlargement requires {hardware} procurement, power contracts, infrastructure buildout, and coverage approvals. These processes transfer slowly, usually during times when value motion seems flat or corrective.
He argues that this sequence can change market construction earlier than value displays it: stronger safety, tighter issuance stream, and broader validation of Bitcoin as a reserve asset slightly than a purely speculative automobile. His conclusion is blunt: “The hashrate restoration isn’t simply technical resilience. It’s a sovereign sign flashing brilliant. Governments are voting with power infrastructure and stability sheets.”
At press time, BTC traded at $63,209.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com