Morning Minute is a every day publication written by Tyler Warner. The evaluation and opinions expressed are his personal and don’t essentially mirror these of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.
GM!
Right this moment’s high information:
- Crypto majors dip then rebound amidst Iran Warfare; BTC at $66k
- HYPE wins the weekend, rallying 20%+ to $30 whereas HIP-3 sees document OI
- Bitcoin ETFs noticed $787M in web inflows final week
- US declares Anthropic as provide chain danger after negotiations on how the US might use Claud fell by way of
- Paradigm introduced a brand new $1.5B fund targeted on AI & Robotics
🪖 Bitcoin Crashes, Rebounds Throughout Early Hours of Iran Warfare
Bitcoin was the one giant liquid asset that anybody might promote when the bombs began dropping. And it solely dropped 3%.
📌 What Occurred
Early Saturday, US and Israeli forces launched coordinated missile strikes on Iran focusing on nuclear, missile, and naval infrastructure.
President Trump confirmed “main fight operations” and urged Iranians to overthrow the regime.
Iran retaliated with missiles focusing on Israel, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, and US bases in Iraq. Israeli Protection Minister Israel Katz declared a nationwide state of emergency.
Iranian state media later confirmed that Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed within the strikes, together with 40 senior officers.
Crypto markets absorbed all of it in actual time.
BTC dropped from roughly $65,500 to $63,000 inside hours. The full crypto market cap fell by $128B with $449M in longs liquidated.
Then, as Iranian state media confirmed Khamenei’s dying, BTC shot again to $68,196 in a significant restoration rally.
As of this morning, it’s again to $66,300.
In the meantime, Hyperliquid was the stunning crypto winner of the weekend. Its HIP-3 markets set a brand new document in open curiosity, and Hyperliquid was featured in Bloomberg as the first market for these seeking to commerce the struggle.
The HYPE token rallied from $26 to $32 by way of weekend buying and selling.
🗣️ What They’re Saying
“Bitcoin is the one giant liquid asset buying and selling 24/7, so it absorbed all of the promoting strain that will usually unfold throughout equities, bonds, and commodities. The actual worth discovery occurs Monday when US fairness markets and Bitcoin ETFs reopen.” – Hayden Hughes, Tokenize Capital
“With quite a lot of the leverage already cleared out and exhausted sellers, there’s solely a lot impression macro occasions can have.” – Justin d’Anethan, Arctic Digital
“The place worth discovery occurs when TradExchanges sleep.” – Arthur Hayes, responding to Hyperliquid’s weekend quantity surge
🧠 Why It Issues
Worry and Greed was sitting at 14. ETF flows had flipped to web sellers in February.
After which the most important geopolitical shock in years hits on a Saturday.
BTC dropped lower than 4%. That was the sign.
Heading into April 2024, when Iran first fired missiles at Israel, BTC dropped about 6%. Then over subsequent months it broke to new all-time highs. The June 2025 strike on Iranian nuclear websites pushed BTC beneath $100K briefly earlier than it ripped.
The sample is constant: struggle shocks set off sell-offs, then the macro digestion reverses them. The query this time is whether or not the 50%-off ATHs and bear market make it completely different.
Two issues to observe: the Strait of Hormuz and the ETF bid.
If Iran’s IRGC retaliates by threatening the strait, by way of which about 20% of worldwide oil passes every day, you get an inflation shock that will hold the Consumed maintain indefinitely and crush danger belongings broadly, crypto included. Goldman Sachs is already predicting Oil will hit $100/barrel if this struggle goes on for 4 weeks as Trump stated it would on Sunday.
Then again, if Khamenei’s dying accelerates regime destabilization and merchants learn it as shortening the battle, the aid bid continues.
Monday’s ETF flows would be the first sign.
The Hyperliquid story is the opposite one to observe long run.
Its HIP-3 open curiosity (the place TradFi belongings will be buying and selling across the clock) hit an all-time excessive above $1.1B. Hyperliquid infrastructure is changing into the 24/7 layer for all asset lessons, not simply tokens.
And it was the large winner of the weekend.
Now we await what’s in retailer this week…
🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets
- Crypto majors fell after which rebounded on the preliminary Iran strike and have levelled off; BTC even at $66.3k; ETH -2% at $1,950; SOL -1% at $84
- Morpho (+5%), NEAR (+5%) and JUP (+3%) led high movers
- Oil is up 8% premarket this morning with the Straight of Hormuz closure
- Gold (+3%) and Silver (+2%) are each rallying amist the struggle
- HYPE rallied 13% over the weekend to $31 as Hyperliquid HIP-3 open curiosity set an all-time excessive above $1.1B and was featured in a Bloomberg headline about weekend markets
- The Division of Warfare labeled Anthropic a “provide chain danger” and directed federal businesses to cease utilizing its AI instruments after negoations to make use of Claude for the Iran struggle fell by way of
- Iran’s crypto mining community is being monitored, because the regime operated between 2-5% of worldwide Bitcoin hashrate utilizing backed electrical energy
- Trump Media is weighing spinning off Reality Social right into a separate public entity referred to as SpinCo, which might merge with Texas Ventures III
- South Korea’s Nationwide Tax Service by accident printed unredacted Ledger seed phrases in a press launch
- Minnesota lawmakers are contemplating a full statewide ban on crypto ATMs by way of HF 3642, which might make it the primary US state to take action.
- Ripple launched new funding routes for XRP Ledger growth, together with a brand new FinTech Builder Programme and college partnerships
Company Treasuries & ETFs
Meme Coin Tracker
- Meme majors had been largely pink; DOGE -2%, SHIB -3%, PEPE -2%, TRUMP -1%, PENGU -1%, SPX -4%, FARTCOIN -2%
- WAR (+150%), Jellybean (+50%), PysopAnime (+30%) and HODL (+50%) led notable movers
💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker
- One Polymarket dealer banked $385K betting on a US-Israel Iran strike date on daily basis since February 8, dropping repeatedly till Saturday morning
- In the meantime, Kalshi caught warmth for not resolving its Khamenei market, resulting in a number of feedback on the matter from founder Tarek Mansour
- Crypto VC Paradigm introduced a brand new $1.5B fund foducsed on AI, robotics and different frontier tech
- Backpack trade defined the authorized engineering behind its token-to-equity program, stating that the conversion proper received’t connect to the token itself, it’ll connect to a VIP program requiring one 12 months of staking and energetic buying and selling
🚚 What is occurring in NFTs?
- NFT leaders had been largely flat over the weekend; Punks even at 29.9 ETH, Pudgy +1% at 4.5 ETH, BAYC -1% at 6 ETH; Hypurr’s -2% at 460 HYPE
- CyberKongz (+36%) led high movers
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