Nigel Farage Confidant Linked to $550K Loss On Iran Strike Polymarket Wager: Report – Decrypt

An account on the prediction market Polymarket that seems to bear the identify and start yr of British financier and Nigel Farage confidant George Cottrell misplaced greater than $550,000 on bets about whether or not the U.S. would bomb Iran.

The “GCottrell93” account wagered roughly $550,000 on the end result “No” to the query “US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?” in keeping with Polymarket knowledge first cited by UK newspaper The Day by day Telegraph. The place was worn out after the USA struck Iran on February 28. Previous to this, the account received a number of bets in opposition to the strikes earlier than different dates in February.

The identical account additionally seems to have misplaced round $125,000 on a guess that Prime Minister Keir Starmer could be out of workplace by February 28. It has garnered virtually $3.5 million in income, the majority of that coming from a guess on Trump profitable the 2024 election.

Blockchain investigator ZachXBT has beforehand expressed “excessive confidence” that the account belongs to Cottrell, a longtime affiliate of Reform UK chief Farage who has helped elevate tens of millions of kilos for his political actions, together with Ukip and the Brexit Celebration. In 2025 his mom, aristocrat Fiona Cottrell, emerged as considered one of Reform UK’s largest donors.

Cottrell has an extended historical past with excessive‑stakes betting and finance. Courtroom filings within the UK beforehand named him as a part of knowledgeable betting syndicate linked to Brighton and Hove Albion proprietor Tony Bloom. The syndicate, tied to the analytics agency Starlizard, reportedly generated tons of of tens of millions of {dollars} in winnings, with Cottrell mentioned to have earned substantial sums by copying its bets.

Cottrell was arrested in 2016 whereas attending the Republican Nationwide Conference in Chicago alongside Farage. U.S. prosecutors charged him with conspiracy to commit cash laundering, wire fraud, blackmail and extortion after conferences with undercover federal brokers in Las Vegas. Following a plea settlement, he pleaded responsible to a single rely of wire fraud and served eight months in jail.

Final month, he revealed a guide entitled “How To Launder Cash: A information for legislation enforcement, prosecutors and policymakers,” whose launch was attended by Farage and senior Reform UK figures.

In a press release emailed to Decrypt, a Reform UK spokesperson mentioned that “George Cottrell isn’t employed by the social gathering so you’re greatest approaching him for remark.” Decrypt has tried to contact Cottrell by way of his firm, Geostrategy. 

Reform UK and crypto

Reform UK has taken an explicitly professional‑cryptocurrency stance and have become the primary main British political social gathering to just accept crypto donations in June 2025. The coverage has drawn criticism from lawmakers and transparency campaigners who warn that cryptocurrency donations may allow cash laundering or overseas interference in British elections.

This week former Labour minister Rushanara Ali known as for a ban on crypto political donations, describing them as a possible vector for “overseas interference in our democracy.” Seven parliamentary committee chairs additionally wrote to the prime minister earlier this yr urging an express prohibition on cryptocurrency donations.

Marketing campaign teams have raised comparable issues. The UK Anti‑Corruption Coalition and Highlight on Corruption argue that the Electoral Fee lacks the powers essential to correctly monitor the origin of crypto donations.

Regardless of publicly saying it accepts it, donating on-line to Reform UK utilizing crypto doesn’t appear to work. Decrypt tried to entry the social gathering’s crypto donations web page on-line on a number of browsers and was directed to a clean web page every time.

Prediction markets beneath scrutiny

Cottrell’s bets additionally come at a time of elevated scrutiny of prediction markets. Polymarket isn’t licensed to function within the UK and limits companies to UK-based customers. The Playing Fee instructed Decrypt it “doesn’t touch upon particular person companies” however pointed to its register of licensed operators, which doesn’t embody Polymarket.

In steering revealed final month, the regulator mentioned prediction market platforms would seemingly fall beneath the authorized definition of a “betting middleman” within the UK, just like a betting alternate, and would require the suitable playing licence to function legally.

Regardless of arguments by some platforms that prediction markets are distinct from playing, regulators around the globe have taken an more and more exhausting line. Corporations within the sector face authorized or regulatory challenges in quite a few jurisdictions together with  France, Germany, Italy, Australia, Singapore, Portugal, Hungary, Thailand and the Netherlands.