Institutional traders could also be proving extra resilient bitcoin holders than critics anticipated, in keeping with Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who says ETF movement knowledge suggests skilled traders have largely held onto their positions in the course of the crypto market’s steep decline.
“The most effective proof we now have is within the ETF market,” Hougan stated. “Bitcoin ETFs gathered roughly $60 billion in internet flows from their launch in January 2024 by October 2025. Since October 2025, costs are down 50%, however we have seen lower than $10 billion in outflows from ETFs.”
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted roughly $60 billion in internet inflows between their launch in January 2024 and October 2025, Hougan advised CoinDesk. Since then, the cryptocurrency’s worth has fallen about 50%, but ETFs have seen lower than $10 billion in outflows.
“In different phrases, regardless of a punishing bear market, skilled traders have confirmed to be ‘diamond arms’ in bitcoin,” he stated.Hougan’s Bitwise provides a set of digital asset funding merchandise, together with the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB). BITB has slightly below $3 billion in property below administration. The main spot bitcoin ETF, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Belief (IBIT) has greater than $55 billion in AUM.
Bitcoin stays a ‘non-consensus asset’
Hougan stated the info problem a standard criticism that institutional traders, typically thought-about extra delicate to macroeconomic shocks and liquidity cycles, might promote their bitcoin publicity shortly during times of market stress. Nonetheless, he added, the alternative dynamic could also be at play at present.
“Regardless of its progress lately, bitcoin stays a non-consensus asset,” he stated. “Institutional traders who purchase bitcoin in the present day are nonetheless sticking their neck out and standing out from their friends.”
That profession danger means establishments allocating to bitcoin in the present day are likely to have unusually sturdy conviction within the asset, stated the CIO at Bitwise, a San Francisco-based firm with over $15 billion in consumer property below administration.
That profession danger means establishments allocating to bitcoin in the present day are likely to have unusually sturdy conviction within the asset, stated the CIO at Bitwise, a San Francisco-based firm with over $15 billion in consumer property below administration.
“Because of this, the institutional traders who resolve to allocate have very excessive conviction,” Hougan stated. “They aren’t 51% satisfied bitcoin is a good suggestion; they’re 80% or 90% satisfied. In any other case, they would not take the chance.”
Due to that dynamic, he stated he believes institutional capital might stay “very sticky” even throughout unstable market cycles “for the foreseeable future.”
The $1 million BTC query
Hougan stated the habits of institutional traders throughout downturns strengthens his long-term $1 million bitcoin outlook, on which he doubled down within the interview.
“The wildest factor about my $1 million prediction is that it isn’t wild in any respect,” Hougan stated. “All you want for bitcoin to get to $1 million is for the worldwide retailer of worth market to proceed to develop because it has for the previous 20 years and for bitcoin to turn out to be a minor however materials a part of that market.”
For Hougan, the resilience of institutional traders by unstable market cycles is a part of that broader maturation course of.
“It simply wants what’s been taking place for the previous 10-20 years to maintain taking place for the following 10 years, and we’ll get there,” he stated.