Simply 0.015% of Polymarket merchants can reliably make $5,000 or extra a month, in accordance with new information, which means the concept of quitting a full-time job to commerce prediction markets is unrealistic for many.
Information from crypto analyst Andrey Sergeenkov on Monday discovered that whereas practically 1% of Polymarket merchants earned greater than $5,000 in a single month, solely 0.1% managed to repeat that the next month and simply 0.015% have been in a position to maintain it for 4 consecutive months.
The common US month-to-month wage is round $5,220, in accordance with Shopper Defend.
Prediction markets have grow to be one of many hottest use instances in crypto, enabling merchants to guess on all the things from politics and sports activities to monetary outcomes and cultural occasions.
Most prediction markets use binary “sure” and “no” shares priced between $0 and $1 that mirror perceived chances. Merchants can revenue by shopping for undervalued shares and promoting increased or holding successful outcomes that settle at $1 when the occasion has concluded.
Sergeenkov’s findings have been framed alongside a report about Logan Sudeith, a former monetary danger analyst who give up his job and turned to prediction markets, the place he profited $100,000 in December.
Sergeenkov additionally highlighted an X put up from former Messari analyst “Tulip King,” who claimed in November that “Polymarket is the simplest place in crypto to make six figures proper now.”
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Nonetheless, Sergeenkov’s information discovered that solely 840 wallets (roughly 0.033% of Polymarket merchants) have profited over $100,000.
Not all of those wallets could be retail merchants, both, as skilled merchants working at hedge funds and different companies are additionally buying and selling in prediction markets.
“Much less skilled customers are inclined to commerce much less efficiently,” Sergeenkov famous.
Most profitable merchants make income and bounce
The extra profitable merchants don’t stick round lengthy both, Sergeenkov mentioned, mentioning that solely 172 of 6,600 pockets addresses with common month-to-month income above $5,000 remained lively greater than a 12 months.
“That’s 2.6%,” Sergeenkov mentioned. “Most merchants present up, commerce for a brief interval, and go away.”
Sergeenkov’s evaluation didn’t come with out limitations. The researcher famous that he solely factored in realized income and losses, although he claimed that 96% of buying and selling quantity comes from already resolved markets.
Information was taken from April 2024 via to April 1, 2026.
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