Morning Minute: CME & Fanduel Convey Prediction Markets to the Lots – Decrypt

Morning Minute is a every day publication written by Tyler Warner. The evaluation and opinions expressed are his personal and don’t essentially mirror these of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

At the moment’s high information:

• Crypto majors blended, ETH and SOL lead; BTC again to $113k
• BNB hits contemporary ATH at $880 in a single day earlier than retracing
• Kanye tweets out YZY coin, briefly runs to $3B earlier than falling
• CME declares partnership with Fanduel to launch occasions contracts
• Heaven notches first $1M income day, burns one other $1M of its LIGHT token

🎲 CME + FanDuel Convey Occasion Contracts to the Lots

Wall Avenue is assembly Predominant Avenue within the betting area.

And the prediction market increase is about to start…

📌 What Occurred

The CME Group and FanDuel are teaming as much as launch a brand new occasion contracts platform, making it simpler for on a regular basis customers to wager on markets just like the S&P 500, oil, gold, and even crypto.

The 2 will create a three way partnership that may supply absolutely funded, event-based contracts as part of the initiative.

These easy sure/no markets will let FanDuel’s hundreds of thousands of shoppers commerce on main benchmarks and financial indicators for as little as $1.

Anticipated to go stay later this 12 months (pending CFTC overview), the platform will cowl:

• Indices: S&P 500, Nasdaq-100
• Commodities: oil, fuel, gold
• Crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and extra
• Macro information: GDP, CPI, and different key releases

The contracts will run by way of a brand new non-clearing futures fee service provider (FCM) collectively operated by CME and FanDuel, and listed on CME’s regulated exchanges.

🗣️ What They’re Saying

• Terry Duffy, CME Group CEO: “Collectively, our event-based merchandise will enchantment to the rising public curiosity in markets, and we are going to present training to draw a brand new era of potential merchants not lively in derivatives at the moment.”
• Amy Howe, FanDuel CEO: “Partnering with CME Group will unlock our means to deliver much more new and fascinating merchandise to FanDuel’s fast-growing buyer base… combining innovation with best-in-class regulatory compliance and shopper protections.”

🧠 Why It Issues

It is a large second for prediction markets and retail entry:

• Mainstream on-ramp: Hundreds of thousands of FanDuel bettors will quickly have a direct line into regulated monetary merchandise, basically turning prediction rading right into a mass-market shopper exercise
• Legitimacy & compliance: With CME because the companion, these contracts have on the spot credibility and regulatory cowl, one thing platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have struggled with
• Bridging hypothesis & investing: By mixing sports activities betting UX with monetary markets, CME and FanDuel are making a product that sits squarely between playing and buying and selling
• Crypto crossover: Together with Bitcoin and Ethereum within the preliminary product set cements crypto’s position as a tradable benchmark alongside equities, commodities, and macro information

Assuming that is accepted, this could possibly be the most important step but towards mass adoption of event-based markets within the U.S. seen so far.

There have been questions (and rightfully so) if prediction markets would make it post-2024 election.

Volumes boomed into probably the most hotly debated election ever, however then (to the shock of many), volumes sustained.

Prediction markets have sustained effectively post-election (information from https://dune.com/fergmolina/polymarket-markets-data)[/caption]

Due to new types of popular culture markets, leaning extra into information and geopolitics and naturally sports activities betting markets, prediction markets have saved volumes at ~50%+ ranges of peak 2024.

That’s an enormous win.

And the extra progress made in 2025-2026 will lead for a good greater 2028 election cycle.

Let the prediction market increase start…

🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes

Just a few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors have been largely inexperienced on the day; BTC even at $113,300, ETH +3% at $4,285, XRP +1% at $2.90, SOL +3% at $184
• OKB (+60%), MORPHO (+12%) and LINK (+6%) led high movers
• BNB briefly broke to a brand new ATH of $880 final evening
• OKB popped one other 60% to $206 after its large token burn
• A choose unfroze $57.6M in funds tied to the Libra meme coin case (tied to Argentina President Javier Milei) after indicators of compliance
• Xapo sees a $200B Bitcoin influx coming from the wealth switch from boomers to their kids over the approaching decade
• Ark Make investments backed Bullish and Robinhood, with Cathie Wooden’s agency shopping for $21.2M of Bullish and $16.2M of Robinhood shares of their market debuts
• The Winklevoss twins funded a pro-Trump crypto PAC to the tune of $21M (188 BTC because it appears to be like to launch the Digital Freedom Fund aimed toward blocking CBDCs and supporting crypto-friendly coverage
• The New York lawmaker’s push for 0.2% crypto tax will even embrace stablecoin transfers

In Company Treasuries

• Empery Digital holds $450M in BTC however its market cap sits at simply $340M, buying and selling effectively beneath mNAV
• Windtree Therapeutics, a BNB treasury firm, has been faraway from Nasdaq for itemizing compliance points

In Memes

• Memecoin leaders are pink on the day; DOGE -3%, Shiba -3%, PEPE -4%, PENGU -8%, BONK -4%, TRUMP -3%, SPX -3%, and FARTCOIN -4%
• Kanye West tweeted out a memecoin YZY which briefly ran to $3B FDV earlier than falling again to $1B
• Heaven reached $1M in every day income on Wednesday (75% of Pump’s income) whereas additionally unlocking a brand new “golden twap” to account for some missed income that hadn’t gone to LIGHT buybacks

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here is a rundown of main token, protocol and airdrop information from the day:

🤖 AI x Crypto

Part devoted to headlines within the AI sector of crypto:

• General market cap down 2% to $12.2B, leaders have been blended
• FARTCOIN (+1%), VIRTUAL (+1%), TIBBIR (-3%), ai16z (-1%) & VVV (-17%)
• fxn (+24%), Simmi (+22%) and IRIS (+15%) led high movers

🚚 What is occurring in NFTs?

Right here is the listing of different notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• ETH NFT leaders have been largely inexperienced; Punks -2% at 46.5 ETH, Pudgy +1% at 12.6, BAYC +2% at 11.6 ETH
• Moonbirds (+15%) and Mooncats (+17%) have been notable high movers
• Bitcoin NFTs have been largely pink and even; Bitcoin Puppets +6%
• Summary NFTs have been blended, led by BUUMEE (+20%)