David Bailey, entrepreneur and Bitcoin adviser to former President Donald Trump, has predicted that no Bitcoin bear market will happen for a number of years, citing unprecedented institutional adoption.
Institutional curiosity grows
Bailey acknowledged in a current X publish that it’s the “first time we’ve ever seen actual institutional purchase in,” emphasizing that main gamers reminiscent of sovereigns, banks, insurers, corporates, and pensions are getting into the market.
He argued that earlier institutional involvement was restricted, however now, “the method has already begun in earnest.” Bailey added:
“Each Sovereign, Financial institution, Insurer, Company, Pension, and extra will personal Bitcoin. The method has already begun in earnest, but we haven’t even captured 0.01% of the Complete addressable market (TAM). We’re going a lot greater. Dream massive.”
Analysts level to four-year cycle dangers
Regardless of Bailey’s optimism, analysts be aware that Bitcoin’s historic four-year cycle might nonetheless result in one other bear market.
CK Zheng of ZX Squared Capital stated that Bitcoin stays carefully tied to the broader inventory market, which means a downturn in equities might set off a Bitcoin correction.
Zheng highlighted the importance of the Federal Reserve’s current pivot in direction of decrease rates of interest, suggesting this might delay a bear market however not get rid of the chance solely.
Pav Hundal, lead market analyst at Swyftx, warned that macroeconomic shocks might rapidly change market route. Hundal commented:
“The trail of least resistance is greater for Bitcoin, however that doesn’t imply a bear market is years away. Macro shocks come once you least count on them.”
Doable finish to conventional bear markets
Ryan McMillin of Merkle Tree Capital steered that whereas a cyclical high might kind round Q2 2026, a bear market might be milder if world liquidity reverses.
He famous that enormous swimming pools of institutional demand might add volatility because of leverage and late entrants, but additionally raised the potential of Bitcoin skipping deep bear markets—just like gold after its ETF launch.
McMillin acknowledged that ongoing intervals of consolidation and leverage resets might imply “common corrections” reasonably than extended downturns.