Bitcoin’s worth swings typically look chaotic, however one analyst believes there’s a hidden seasonal rhythm behind the volatility.
Timothy Peterson, a long-time cryptocurrency researcher, says historic knowledge reveals that sure calendar dates carry a far larger threat of losses – and late September is especially harmful.
Late September stands out for steep declines
Peterson’s knowledge overview reveals that September 21 has persistently delivered the heaviest common each day loss, coming in at about 2%. The weak spot doesn’t cease there: September 24 and March 22 additionally rank amongst Bitcoin’s worst-performing days, each exhibiting common declines above 1.5%. Two of these three dates fall inside the identical week, making the again half of September a recurring drawback interval for the digital asset.
September 21 is the worst day of the 12 months for Bitcoin. It drops practically 80% of the time.
It has the one largest calendar day loss with a median of -2.00% (March twenty second is second with -1.52%).
The third worst day, -1.50%, is September twenty fourth. So inside 4 days, you get two… pic.twitter.com/z1kfd05F8l
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) September 5, 2025
Bitcoin already slipped 6.5% in August, and Peterson thinks seasonal pressures may drag on costs a bit longer. Even so, his mannequin factors to Bitcoin closing September between $97,000 and $113,000 – suggesting that short-lived dips don’t erase the broader bullish development.
Why merchants ought to care
Markets past crypto typically present seasonal tendencies – from shares promoting off in October to commodities reacting to reap cycles. Peterson argues Bitcoin’s monitor report deserves related consideration. For merchants, dates like September 21 function early warning indicators, particularly if macroeconomic stress or regulatory headlines hit on the identical time.
Patterns are by no means certainties, however Peterson’s analysis means that Bitcoin has its personal “calendar impact.” If historical past is any information, the third week of September may as soon as once more be one of many hardest stretches of the 12 months.
