Bitcoin’s newest correction rattled merchants. BTC value dropped from above $120,800 to just about $102,000 earlier than bouncing again nearly 9% to over $111,000. Whereas altcoins like Ethereum and XRP fell over 13%, Bitcoin’s decline of seven% at press time exhibits it held up significantly better — hinting at underlying energy even amid heavy liquidations.
Nonetheless, the large query stays: Can Bitcoin keep above $100,000, or will the value drop lengthen decrease than this key psychological stage quickly? Three charts maintain the reply.
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Holders Rise and Veterans Keep Calm Amid The Crash
The primary signal of assist comes from on-chain holder conduct.
Regardless of the crash, the entire variety of Bitcoin holders elevated from 56.92 million to 56.98 million since yesterday, displaying that traders have been including publicity as costs dropped. That’s typical of dip-buying conviction, not panic promoting.
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The Spent Cash Age Bands (SCAB) again this up. This metric tracks the age of cash being moved — in brief, whether or not older or newer holders are spending their Bitcoin.
When the crash started on October 10, the general SCAB stood round 17,100 BTC, whereas the 180–365–day band (pink) was close to 9,995 BTC, and the 365–day–2–12 months band (blue) was near 2,452 BTC.
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Because the sell-off unfolded, the general SCAB rose sharply to 23,086 BTC, confirming a spike in spending exercise amongst newer holders.
In distinction, the pink band eased barely to 9,646 BTC, and the blue band dropped sharply to 535 BTC — clear proof that long-term holders stayed quiet.
Which means that the panic promoting was principally led by newer or mid-term wallets, whereas the veteran holders continued holding. And veterans normally maintain on until they anticipate enormous value drops, like one thing under the $100,000 mark.
When long-term holders keep inactive and the entire holder base grows, it normally alerts that robust palms are changing the market’s weak palms. That’s the form of reset that stabilizes a sentiment-driven drop earlier than the subsequent leg increased.
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Bitcoin Worth Setup Flips From Bearish to Bullish
Bitcoin’s value motion tells a clearer story. The current crash wasn’t purely sentiment-driven — it adopted a technical setup that always marks turning factors.
The important thing driver was a bearish divergence on the Relative Power Index (RSI), which measures shopping for and promoting momentum on a scale of 0 to 100.
A divergence types when the RSI and value transfer in reverse instructions — for instance, when the value makes the next excessive however the RSI makes a decrease excessive. This sample normally alerts that momentum is weakening earlier than a reversal.
That’s precisely what occurred between mid-July and early October. Bitcoin made new highs on the chart, however RSI failed to verify them, making a decrease excessive.
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The outcome was a pointy 19.1% correction (yesterday), nearly equivalent to an earlier divergence-led drop this 12 months of over 14%. These setups present how strongly Bitcoin reacts to RSI alerts.
Now, the sample has flipped. Between September 25 and October 11, a bullish divergence appeared — value made a decrease low whereas RSI made the next low. This means that promoting strain is dropping energy, and momentum could also be quietly constructing for a rebound.
At press time, Bitcoin trades close to $111,600, aligning with the 0.5 Fibonacci stage ($111,400). A each day shut above this stage might affirm renewed energy towards $113,600, $116,800, and $120,800.
The invalidation level sits under $109,100, with draw back publicity restricted to $106,400 and $101,900, making a drop under $100,000 unlikely within the quick time period. Solely a each day candle shut below $101,900 can push the Bitcoin value below $100,000.