Morning Minute is a each day e-newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The evaluation and opinions expressed are his personal and don’t essentially replicate these of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.
GM!
Right this moment’s high information:
- Crypto majors barely decrease; Bitcoin at $121,500
- ZEC continues to guide high movers, up 19% to $230
- JPMorgan says SOL ETFs will entice much less demand than BTC & ETH
- Roger Ver agrees to pay $48M to finish crypto tax fraud case
- Aster airdrop portal opens as we speak forward of 14th airdrop date; Monad opens portal on the 14th
💸 Arthur Hayes Says The 4-Yr Cycle Is Lifeless
Some of the essential and imminent questions for crypto traders – is the 4-year cycle over?
Arthur Hayes says sure.
📌 What Occurred
In hist newest weblog “Lengthy Dwell the King,” Hayes critiques prior peaks and busts and says they coincided with tightening or easing of fiat liquidity, not the halving date itself.
His core thesis is that 2014, 2018 and 2022 drawdowns tracked financial tightening, whereas expansions coincided with bull phases.
Trying ahead to 2025, he believes that with coverage tilting simpler and spot-ETF demand now a structural bid, the market’s path must be ruled by liquidity cycles.
Which implies shallower, liquidity-driven pullbacks somewhat than a time-boxed bear market.
🗣️ What They’re Saying
“Hearken to our financial masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that cash shall be cheaper and extra plentiful. Due to this fact, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this extremely possible future. The king is useless, lengthy dwell the king!” – Arthur Hayes in “Lengthy Dwell the King”
🧠 Why It Issues
Whereas Hayes can usually be verbose and at instances arduous to observe, his argument on this weblog submit cuts fairly straight to the purpose.
He particularly calls out bullish liquidity drivers together with:
- Trump stating he needs to run the economic system scorching and outgrow the debt
- Trump decreasing the price of housing to launch trillions in trapped housing fairness
- Deregulation of banks enabling elevated loans to crucial industries
General, meaning decrease rates of interest and a better cash provide.
And that’s a primary setting for Bitcoin to proceed to run.
That is precisely in step with the debasement commerce logic as nicely.
And in step with my private view.
My private comp for Bitcoin’s close to future is the gold run from 2004 to 2010.
Six straight years of up solely.
You realize what occurred in 2004? The gold ETFs had been authorized.
With this line of thought, 2004 gold = 2024 Bitcoin.
So perhaps cease worrying about four-year cycles and let the roaring 20s roar…
🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes
A number of Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:
- Crypto majors are barely purple; BTC -1% at $121,500, ETH -1% at $4,340, BNB -2% at $1,265, SOL -1% at $221
- ZEC (+19%), TAO (+17%) and LTC (+12%) led high movers
- ZEC is up over 140% prior to now two weeks on the again of recent Grayscale entry and assist from Naval
- The BTC ETFs noticed one other $198M in internet inflows yesterday, conserving their 8-day influx streak; ETH noticed internet outflows, breaking its streak
- Coinbase and Mastercard are every in talks to purchase stablecoin startup BVNK for ~$2B
- Cynthia Lummis showcased a invoice to make Bitcoin transactions beneath a specific amount tax free
- Roger Ver agreed to pay $48M to finish U.S. tax-fraud case, with prosecutors set to drop costs beneath a tentative deferred-prosecution deal
- Luxembourg’s sovereign wealth fund allotted about $8M into Bitcoin ETFs (1% of its fund), marking the primary Eurozone state investor so as to add BTC publicity
- Crypto.com’s prediction-market effort hit a Nevada courtroom setback, with the identical decide that allowed Kalshi to function denying crypto dot com
In Company Treasuries / ETFs
In Memes
- Memecoin leaders are blended; DOGE +1%, Shiba -1%, PEPE +1%, PENGU -1%, BONK -1%, TRUMP -1%, SPX +1%, and FARTCOIN -1%
- 90% of merchants who bridged from Sol to BNB chasing the meme SZN misplaced cash in keeping with Whale Guru
💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker
Right here’s a rundown of main token, protocol and airdrop information from the day:
- Monad introduced its airdrop declare portal will open Oct 14
- Jupiter Perps upgraded its leverage to permit as much as 250x longs on Bitcoin, ETH and SOL
- Hyperswap DEX introduced 75% of income will likely be used for buybacks
- Myriad crossed $20M in lifetime quantity
- Yeet kicked off its Constructed for Large Moments match
🚚 What is occurring in NFTs?
Right here is the listing of different notable headlines from the day in NFTs:
- NFT leaders had been largely purple; Punks even at 48.4 ETH, Pudgy -1% at 9.4, BAYC even at 8.81 ETH; Hypurr’s -1% at 1,248 HYPE
- Doodles (+6%) had been notable high mover
- Good Vibes Membership introduced that the brand new Vibe Technique token (VIBESTR) would develop into their official mission token together with a 69 ETH purchase for his or her treasury (VIBESTR at $8M and 2nd highest technique token)
- Artwork Blocks Curated’s remaining mission ‘Quine’ opened up for bidding
- A Beeple 1/1 ‘REAL ART’ bought for $200,600
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