Bitcoin traders, it’s time to buckle up.
Jon Glover, Elliott Wave analyst and Ledn’s Chief Funding Officer, identified for his exact market forecasts, goes in opposition to the bullish consensus with a stark warning: The bitcoin bull market that started in early 2023 seems to be over following a latest fall from $126,000 to $104,000.
Glover now foresees a sustained bear market that would push costs all the way down to $70,000 or decrease, a possible drop of greater than 35% from the going market fee of round $108,000.
“I firmly consider we’ve accomplished the five-wave upward transfer and are actually coming into a bear market that will final till at the least late 2026,” Glover stated. “I count on bitcoin to commerce between $70K and $80K, and probably even decrease.”
Glover defined that whereas the potential for bitcoin retesting its file highs round $124,000 or climbing barely increased can’t be dominated out, the broader pattern has now flipped bearish, that means costs are prone to be decrease a couple of months from now.
The Elliott Wave idea
Launched by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1938, Elliott Wave Concept is predicated on the concept that collective investor psychology strikes in predictable cycles. These cycles type a five-wave construction within the course of the principle pattern, with three impulse waves and two corrective waves.
Bitcoin’s bullish five-wave sample began in late 2022, when costs have been beneath $20,000, culminating with the fifth wave peaking at a file above $126,000 earlier this month.
Initially, wave 5 was predicted to deliver costs to between $140,000 and $150,000 by year-end. Glover made this name in early August in opposition to a backdrop of rising bearish considerations after a pointy dip from $120,000 to $112,000.
Whereas costs surged as forecasted, momentum stalled past $125,000 this month, prompting Glover to warn {that a} repeated failure to carry above that degree would weaken the bull case. Subsequently, bitcoin tumbled to $105,000 final week, confirming an early finish to the bull run.
“Now that we’ve damaged down beneath $108k, I’m able to make the decision as as to if we’re on the orange path within the chart beneath and subsequently searching for a transfer as much as $145k, or are on the yellow path, which might imply that we’ve seen the highs on this market,” Glover stated. “Right here’s my name: THE BULL RUN IN BITCOIN IS OVER!”
The bearish outlook is according to bitcoin’s historic pattern of peaking after which coming into a bear market roughly 18 months after every halving occasion. The newest halving occurred in April 2024.
Supporting Glover’s bearish sentiment, information from Amberdata exhibits BTC’s Deribit-listed put choices, offering draw back safety, are buying and selling at a premium in comparison with calls by way of the September 2026 expiry. This means that some merchants are getting ready for draw back dangers extending nicely into subsequent 12 months.