CryptoQuant information exhibits how Trump’s China rhetoric drove Bitcoin’s volatility from panic-selling to renewed confidence.
October’s anticipated “Uptober” momentum and seasonal bullish expectations seem to have taken a backseat.
As an alternative, US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff threats and commerce remarks towards China took middle stage, and dictated Bitcoin’s sharp value swings and investor feelings all through the month.
BTC Market’s Emotional Rollercoaster
Trump’s China-related rhetoric in October 2025 reverberated by means of Bitcoin’s (BTC) value motion and on-chain sentiment, because the asset continues to be delicate to geopolitical threat. The Internet Unrealized Revenue/Loss (NUPL) indicator, which measures mixture market psychology by means of unrealized positive factors and losses, mirrored traders’ shifting feelings all through the month. On October 10, when Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese language imports, Bitcoin tumbled by 8.4% to round $104,800. NUPL concurrently dipped beneath 0.50, a degree traditionally related to rising concern and profit-taking.
A number of days later, as Trump adopted a softer tone on China, Bitcoin recovered towards the mid-$110,000 vary whereas NUPL mirrored cautious optimism.
Nevertheless, renewed tensions on October 14, which noticed new export controls and port charges, ended up triggering one other sell-off, which pushed each BTC value and NUPL decrease once more. Sentiment started to stabilize solely after October 24, when information of Trump’s upcoming summit together with his Chinese language counterpart, Xi Jinping.
Bitcoin climbed above $115,000, and NUPL began to recuperate. By October 26, experiences emerged that Trump would possibly cancel the tariff plan, which additional boosted confidence, and NUPL approached 0.52, indicating rising market energy. Pointing to this market volatility and sentiment swings, CryptoQuant acknowledged that geopolitical shocks like Trump’s commerce threats don’t simply shake costs; additionally they “reshape market sentiment.”
BTC Shorts Liquidated
As Bitcoin rebounded, over-leveraged brief merchants bought liquidated. The asset now hovers above the $114,000 assist zone, a degree that lately acted as a powerful space of purchaser protection. In keeping with crypto analyst Ted Pillows, the subsequent key step for it’s to reclaim the $118,000 zone, which has repeatedly served as short-term resistance all through October’s uneven buying and selling. A transfer above this threshold, he recommended, may pave the best way for a brand new all-time excessive throughout the subsequent one to 2 weeks.
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Not everybody shares the rising optimism. One other market skilled, Ali Martinez, for one, warned that the asset may quickly face profit-taking strain, because the TD Sequential indicator has flashed a promote sign on the each day chart – a instrument typically used to determine potential pattern exhaustion.
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