Over $104 billion price of long-held Bitcoin has moved since 2024, igniting a debate about whether or not true long-term holders (OGs) or current merchants are driving the most recent market sell-off.
Surge in previous bitcoin motion
Cointelegraph reported that greater than 400,000 BTC shifted from long-term holder (LTH) wallets previously 30 days, coinciding with Bitcoin’s value decline from $126,000 to $100,000.
Alex Thorn, head of analysis at Galaxy, highlighted the dimensions of the motion in a current evaluation:
“An unlimited quantity of distribution has occurred.”
Thorn famous that over 470,000 BTC older than 5 years modified palms in 2025, and mixed with 2024, the overall reached over $104 billion—practically half of all Bitcoin that has circulated for 5 years or extra.
This prompted concern from Troy Cross, a philosophy professor and Bitcoin commentator, who argued that if early adopters are promoting in dimension, it suggests OG holders might now not view Bitcoin as basically distinct from conventional investments.
Disagreement over ‘OG dumping’ narrative
Onchain analyst Checkmate pushed again in opposition to the concept that authentic holders are capitulating, stating that a lot of the revived provide stems from cash held for lower than two years. Checkmate defined:
“The vast majority of 2025’s revived provide truly comes from cash held for a lot shorter durations (six months to 2 years), typical of merchants locking in earnings reasonably than true long-term believers leaving the market.”
Blockstream CEO Adam Again agreed, noting that onchain knowledge reveals nearly all of moved cash are from recent-cycle merchants.
Evaluation of revived provide reveals 700,000 BTC moved had been dormant for six months to 1 yr, whereas simply 50,000 BTC had been dormant for 5 to seven years.
Twin stress from etfs and long-term holders
In response to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s current value dip is the results of a “two-front promoting warfare”—with each institutional spot ETF buyers and LTHs contributing to downward stress.
The seven-day cumulative netflow for spot Bitcoin ETFs has declined by practically $21 billion, marking the biggest outflow in six weeks.
This shift has turned ETF inflows into a brand new supply of provide, undermining earlier help for the value.
Until institutional demand rebounds or LTHs sluggish their gross sales, analysts warn that the market might stay supply-heavy within the close to time period.