The ENA worth is up greater than 10% up to now 24 hours and trades close to $0.28. The transfer stands out as a result of the token remains to be down about 54% in three months, caught in a gentle downtrend. Some merchants would possibly see the bounce as the beginning of a development shift.
However on-chain information and technical indicators nonetheless lean the opposite method. The rally has not earned sufficient affirmation, and a 13% pullback stays an actual risk.
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Whales Scale back Publicity Whereas Quantity and Momentum Lag
Giant holders should not backing the transfer. Whereas a number of posts on X highlighted recent whale shopping for, the broader image tells the alternative story.
Over the previous 24 hours, whale holdings dropped from 8.17 billion to eight.07 billion ENA. That’s a discount of almost 100 million ENA, value about $28 million at present costs.
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So the bounce is going on whereas whales proceed to trim positions. That weakens the rally’s base
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Quantity patterns agree. On-Steadiness Quantity (OBV), which tracks whether or not actual shopping for quantity is rising or falling, has fashioned a transparent divergence. From November 18 to November 26, the ENA worth made the next excessive, however the OBV made a decrease excessive.
This implies worth is rising quicker than actual quantity, and such divergence usually caps rallies. To nullify the divergence, the OBV metric should break previous its descending trendline. Till that occurs, ENA worth rallies will lack energy.
Momentum doesn’t help a breakout both.
RSI (Relative Energy Index), which measures shopping for energy, exhibits a hidden bearish divergence. Between November 10 and November 26, the ENA worth fashioned a decrease excessive, however the RSI fashioned the next excessive. Hidden bearish divergence seems inside ongoing downtrends, not earlier than reversals. It suggests the broader development is making an attempt to proceed decrease.
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Whenever you mix whale promoting, weakening OBV, and a bearish RSI construction, the rally appears to be like extra like a aid bounce than a development change.
ENA Value Ranges Present a Potential 13% Drop
The important thing degree within the brief time period is $0.29. If Ethena (ENA) can’t break and shut above that degree, the bounce loses momentum once more. That exposes $0.24, which sits virtually 13% under present costs.
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A clear break underneath $0.24 opens the best way towards $0.21, which is the deeper help if promoting strain grows.
For the rally to achieve energy and proceed, the ENA worth wants two steps:
• first, a powerful candle shut above $0.29, primarily led by the OBV breakout (if it occurs)
• then a follow-through above $0.35.
Solely above $0.35 do the RSI-led bearish divergences start to weaken, and solely then can a transfer towards $0.53 develop into an affordable upside goal. Till that occurs, the ENA worth downtrend stays in management.