XRP worth enters December after a weak November, with the token down almost 13% for the month. December has typically appeared sturdy on paper because of the 2017 outlier, however current years have proven a lot tamer returns.
With ETF inflows rising, long-term holders promoting, and XRP buying and selling close to a key resistance zone, merchants need to know if December can provide a cleaner setup. This evaluation seems to be at XRP’s seasonal historical past, on-chain conduct, and the degrees that matter most.
December Historical past And ETF Momentum For XRP: A Blended Bag?
At first look, December seems to be like a robust month for XRP, with a mean acquire of about 69.6%. However the median return is –3.16%, displaying that the +818% surge in 2017 inflated the long-term common.
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A extra life like comparability comes from current years, with a acquire of 6.94% in 2024 and 1.62% in 2023.
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November 2025 has been weak. XRP is down virtually 13%, which makes merchants doubt whether or not the optimistic December seasonality nonetheless applies.
Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, believes this December might behave otherwise as a result of institutional demand is now energetic by ETFs. He informed BeInCrypto:
“December is more likely to look very totally different for XRP this yr, primarily as a result of institutional demand has now arrived… XRP enters the month on the again of the momentum generated from the ETF buzz, which has attracted substantial institutional curiosity and capital from the outset,” he mentioned.
He additionally famous that XRP is already on a multi-day ETF influx streak totaling greater than $640 million and added:
“ETF influx sustainability will now doubtless be the key tailwind for XRP’s worth motion in December,” he believes
Youssef, nevertheless, nonetheless stays cautious. He warns:
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“If the broader market atmosphere weakens additional and ETF flows reverse, XRP will doubtless comply with BTC and ETH actions and retest $2”, he mentioned.
Collectively, the blended December historical past and the recent ETF momentum present that XRP’s December relies upon closely on whether or not institutional demand continues.
On-Chain Alerts Aren’t The Most Bullish
XRP’s on-chain image doesn’t absolutely assist a robust December but. Lengthy-term holders — particularly these within the 1–3 yr group — proceed to scale back their balances.
This knowledge comes from HODL Waves, which exhibits how provide is unfold throughout totally different holding durations. Over the previous month, the 1–2 yr cohort dropped from 9.72% to eight.516%, and the two–3 yr cohort moved from 14.80% to 14.251%.
These modifications could seem small, however they matter as a result of these teams maintain a major share of the circulating provide. Their promoting weakens any upside try.
Ray additionally warned about this conduct. He mentioned:
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“Lengthy-term holders nonetheless management a disproportionate share of the circulating provide… XRP can file substantial beneficial properties in December provided that institutional demand stays sturdy sufficient to offset any promoting strain from long-term holders,” he talked about.
The fee foundation heatmap reinforces the identical threat. It exhibits the strongest provide cluster between $2.445 and $2.460, the place about 1.749 billion XRP sits.
That is the precise space that has acted as resistance earlier. Even when ETF inflows stay sturdy, the XRP worth nonetheless wants to interrupt by this wall for a clear bullish pattern to type.
Collectively, the long-term holder distribution and the heavy cost-basis cluster clarify why the XRP worth in December might have a major push to achieve momentum.
XRP Value In December: Key Ranges And The Most Reasonable State of affairs
The XRP worth trades close to $2.196, simply above the second rebound from $1.772. This kinds a transparent double-bottom construction — one bounce in October and one other in late November.
The sample helps a short-term restoration try, however XRP should clear $2.307 after which the important thing breakout degree at $2.459. This degree completely aligns with the fee foundation heatmap clusters.
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A clear each day shut above $2.459 unlocks the subsequent zone close to $2.612. This traces up with the 0.618 Fibonacci degree, the cost-basis cluster, and Ray Youssef’s personal view. As he mentioned:
“A extra life like goal for December is $2.60. A transparent breakout above $2.60 can be the primary agency indication of a bullish shift,” he highlighted.
The technical and basic targets each sit at $2.60–$2.61.
If ETF flows weaken and Bitcoin and Ethereum pull again, XRP can comply with the broader market. Youssef famous:
“If BTC and ETH expertise one other downturn in December, XRP will doubtless comply with go well with,” he talked about.
If that occurs, the important thing zone to observe is $2.119. A detailed under it exposes the $1.772 assist once more.
At this level, the XRP worth in December sits between two paths. Sustained ETF demand can drive a break above $2.459 after which $2.60–$2.61.
With out it, the XRP worth is more likely to stay tied to Bitcoin’s path and revisit decrease ranges.