mNAV has develop into the go-to valuation shorthand for bitcoin treasury shares — however a rising variety of analysts are warning it oversimplifies the story.
The rise of mNAV in bitcoin finance
Over the previous few years, a category of publicly traded firms has emerged whose main worth proposition is holding bitcoin on their stability sheets. These “bitcoin treasuries” — together with corporations like Technique (MSTR), previously generally known as MicroStrategy — have sparked debate amongst buyers, particularly when their shares commerce at ranges disconnected from the worth of the BTC they maintain.
The most typical valuation yardstick is the a number of of web asset worth (mNAV). It compares an organization’s enterprise worth (EV) to the market worth of its bitcoin holdings, giving buyers a approach to assess how a lot of a premium or low cost the market assigns to its treasury.
mNAV ≈ enterprise worth ÷ bitcoin holdings worth
The metric is now extensively adopted. Technique publishes its personal mNAV on its investor web site, whereas third-party dashboards comparable to BitcoinTreasuries.web observe varied mNAV figures throughout a number of corporations.
How mNAV works
A primary mNAV calculation includes:
- Estimating the market worth of the corporate’s BTC stack utilizing present costs.
- Calculating enterprise worth: market cap + debt – money equivalents.
- Dividing EV by BTC holdings to get the a number of.
This EV-based strategy represents only one approach to compute mNAV. Relying on how analysts deal with debt, money, and potential share dilution, the ratio can shift considerably — which is why the business now tracks a number of variants.
A studying above 1.0 implies a premium, whereas a studying beneath 1.0 suggests a reduction — probably a pink flag or a chance, relying on the investor’s outlook.
Whereas Technique stories an enterprise‑value-based mNAV on its investor web site, third‑get together knowledge suppliers publish a number of variations of the metric — every reflecting totally different assumptions about capital construction and share rely.
The way to learn mNAV: premium, parity, low cost
As soon as calculated, mNAV offers a way of how markets are valuing a agency’s bitcoin publicity:
- mNAV > 1:
The inventory trades at a premium to the worth of its bitcoin. Traders could also be assigning further worth for capital market entry, future BTC accumulation potential, or an working enterprise. - mNAV ≈ 1:
The agency trades at a worth near the worth of its BTC holdings. This implies it is being valued like a direct bitcoin proxy, with little added or subtracted for different elements. - mNAV < 1:
The inventory trades at a reduction to its BTC holdings — an indication buyers aren’t prepared to pay even full worth for the cash on the stability sheet. This will elevate considerations about execution or capital construction, however some worth buyers see it as a shopping for alternative.
As a result of mNAV is a dimensionless ratio, it permits comparisons throughout corporations no matter treasury dimension or share rely. It additionally displays broader market sentiment about whether or not buyers belief the agency’s total technique.
Understanding the variants: primary, diluted, and EV mNAV
Some dashboards, e.g., BitcoinTreasuries.web, now present a number of mNAV variants:
- mNAV Primary
A easy ratio utilizing the present market cap and BTC holdings, with no changes for future share dilution. - mNAV Diluted
Adjusts for convertible notes and different devices by rising the share rely. This provides a extra conservative view of what shareholders “actually” personal. - mNAV EV
Makes use of enterprise worth as an alternative of market cap to include debt and different liabilities. This model is particularly helpful when a agency, comparable to Technique, has issued long-dated convertibles and holds substantial liabilities.
As of Nov. 30, Technique’s reported values had been:
- mNAV Primary: 0.856
- mNAV Diluted: 0.954
- mNAV EV: 1.105
Meaning fairness buyers could also be paying barely lower than $1 per greenback of BTC on a diluted foundation, whereas the broader market — together with debt holders — nonetheless values the agency above its BTC holdings.
Why it issues
mNAV has actual implications for capital markets exercise. A agency buying and selling above 1.0 can elevate fairness or debt at favorable phrases and purchase extra bitcoin, successfully rising its publicity. When mNAV drops, that playbook turns into more durable or extra dilutive.
Due to that suggestions loop, mNAV influences how firms strategy financing — and the way buyers assess the viability of bitcoin-first enterprise fashions.
The NYDIG critique
In a June 2025 weblog publish, Greg Cipolaro, the worldwide head of analysis at NYDIG, provided a pointy critique of mNAV because it’s generally used. He argued the metric is “woefully poor” for failing to replicate key stability sheet dangers — particularly assumptions about convertible notes.
Many analysts, Cipolaro famous, deal with these convertibles as in the event that they’re assured to transform into fairness. But when market triggers aren’t met, the notes may need to be repaid in money, making a refinancing threat that mNAV fails to seize.
Cipolaro additionally flagged that mNAV typically ignores the worth of the working firm (opco), which might be a supply of hidden threat or upside. As an alternative of scrapping the metric, he steered refining it to include extra strong modeling of capital construction and opco valuation.
The street forward
mNAV stays essentially the most cited metric for evaluating bitcoin treasury shares, however critiques like Cipolaro’s counsel it might want an improve. Traders are more and more calling for extra transparency and standardization — particularly as extra corporations undertake bitcoin-forward treasury methods.
With bitcoin treasuries rising in quantity and complexity, the query is now not simply “what’s the a number of?” however “what’s really in it?”