Michael Saylor’s bitcoin treasury firm, Technique (MSTR), has arrange a $1.44 billion U.S. greenback reserve, a transfer that onchain analytics agency CryptoQuant says indicators preparation for a possible bitcoin bear market.
CryptoQuant highlights strategic shift
CryptoQuant acknowledged in a latest report:
“Technique seems to acknowledge a non-trivial likelihood of a deep or prolonged bitcoin drawdown. Establishing a 24-month USD buffer suggests an expectation that bitcoin might commerce sideways or decrease for an prolonged interval, and that capital markets could also be much less receptive to future inventory issuance.”
Technique’s USD reserve, funded by way of its newest at-the-market share issuance, goals to help dividend funds and debt curiosity, overlaying no less than 12 months initially, with plans to increase protection to 24 months or extra.
CryptoQuant famous that this twin method—holding each USD and bitcoin—reduces the danger of pressured bitcoin gross sales throughout downturns and marks a break from Technique’s earlier mannequin of utilizing fairness and debt to buy extra bitcoin.
Decreased bitcoin shopping for and market implications
In keeping with CryptoQuant, Technique’s month-to-month bitcoin purchases have sharply declined, from 134,000 BTC in November 2024 to simply 9,100 BTC in November 2025, with solely 135 BTC purchased thus far in December.
This shift coincides with bitcoin’s largest worth drawdown of 2025, as indicated by numerous bitcoin worth historical past charts and technical indicators now signaling a bearish part.
The agency’s Bull Rating Index just lately fell to zero, its most bearish studying since January 2022.
Versatile treasury administration and threat mitigation
CryptoQuant commented that Technique is not treating its bitcoin holdings as untouchable and is now prioritizing flexibility—together with money buffers, hedging, and selective monetization if wanted.
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of analysis, instructed that if the bear market persists, bitcoin might commerce between $70,000 and $55,000 within the coming 12 months, with gross sales of bitcoin thought-about a final resort after derivatives.
Mizuho’s outlook on Technique
Funding financial institution Mizuho Securities maintained its outperform score and $484 worth goal for Technique, describing the USD reserve as a liquidity administration software moderately than a sign of imminent bitcoin gross sales.
Mizuho famous that the reserve gives a buffer in opposition to pressured asset gross sales, enabling Technique to maintain operations for over three years at present bitcoin costs.