Technique Is Bracing For A Bear Market, CryptoQuant Says

A collapse in Technique’s Bitcoin shopping for this 12 months and a $1.4 billion reserve fund introduced this week present that Michael Saylor’s agency is bracing for a bear market, CryptoQuant mentioned.

The on-chain analytics agency mentioned in a Dec. 3 report that Technique’s month-to-month BTC purchases fell from 134,000 on the 2024 peak to simply 9,100 in November, with solely 130 BTC added up to now this month.

The CryptoQuant report comes shortly after Technique introduced the institution of a $1.4 billion reserve, which can allow the agency to make good on its debt obligations over the following two years. 

”Technique’s Bitcoin shopping for has collapsed via 2025,” it mentioned on X. ”A 24-month buffer makes one factor clear: they’re bracing for the bear market.”

It added that the institution of the 24-month buffer suggests an expectation that Bitcoin might commerce sideways or decrease for an prolonged interval, and that capital markets could also be much less receptive to future inventory issuance.

It additionally exhibits the acknowledgement a chance of ”a deep or prolonged bitcoin drawdown,” it mentioned.

Technique’s Treasury Technique Scrutinized Amid Inventory Worth Collapse

There’s elevated nervousness over Technique’s Bitcoin treasury technique after its MSTR inventory plummeted greater than 50% up to now six months and 24% within the final month.

Technique share worth (Supply: Google Finance)

This has seen the corporate’s enterprise worth drop beneath the worth of its 650k Bitcoin holdings. 

Technique Declares $1.4 Billion Money Reserve To Meet Debt Obligations

Critics mentioned that Technique’s declining share worth and a broader crypto market droop would drive the corporate to promote its BTC in an effort to pay again buyers. 

Whereas Saylor stood agency on his “by no means promote Bitcoin” stance, Technique’s CEO Phong Le added to investor considerations when he mentioned final weekend that the corporate could contemplate promoting a few of its BTC in sure conditions.

These situations embrace if the corporate’s inventory falls beneath its internet asset worth or if it losses entry to financing. 

In an try to appease investor anxiousness, the corporate introduced a $1.4 billion USD reserve. A press launch mentioned it’s meant to cowl not less than a 12 months of dividends, and finally two years, to present the corporate a monetary cushion. CEO Phong Le mentioned it at the moment exceeds the corporate’s near-term payout obligation.

Technique has acquired 130 BTC for ~$11.7 million at ~$89,960 per bitcoin. As of 11/30/2025, we hodl 650,000 $BTC acquired for ~$48.38 billion at ~$74,436 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC $STRK $STRF $STRD $STRE https://t.co/UkWX7PRHms

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) December 1, 2025

Critics have questioned whether or not Technique can meet obligations from its most well-liked inventory, a priority that’s amplified by broader market weak point.

MSCI Delisting Threat Threatens Billion-Greenback Outflows

Including to Technique’s woes is the danger that it’s delisted from MSCI indexes subsequent month.

JPMorgan warned final week that Technique faces a multi-billion hit from MSCI and different index suppliers that will delist the corporate.

The warning got here after MSCI mentioned it’s contemplating excluding corporations whose digital asset holdings signify greater than 50% of their whole property from its indexes. Its choice is due on Jan. 15.

If that occurs, JPMorgan mentioned Technique may even see as a lot as $2.8 billion in liquidity depart, and JPMorgan estimated that billions extra would observe if different index suppliers adopted its lead. Passive funds utilizing index-based allocations maintain some $9 billion of the Bitcoin purchaser’s inventory, it mentioned, through indexes together with MSCI USA and Nasdaq 100. 

Saylor responded on X, saying “Technique shouldn’t be a fund, not a belief, and never a holding firm,” including that ”we’re a publicly traded working firm with a $500 million software program enterprise and a singular treasury technique that makes use of Bitcoin as productive capital.” 

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