Barclays expects a extra tepid 12 months for crypto in 2026, with buying and selling volumes trending down and investor enthusiasm waning. In a wide-ranging year-end report revealed Friday, the financial institution flagged a troublesome backdrop for digital asset exchanges like Coinbase (COIN), citing unclear catalysts for renewed exercise and a gradual begin to token adoption efforts.
Retail-facing exchanges, which benefited from surging buying and selling curiosity through the crypto bull runs of prior years, are actually going through a extra subdued surroundings. Barclays analysts famous that buying and selling quantity in spot markets — key income drivers for firms like Coinbase and Robinhood (HOOD) — has cooled sharply. With out a clear spark to reignite demand, volumes might stay muted.
“Spot crypto buying and selling volumes […] look like trending in the direction of a down-year in FY26, and it’s not clear to us what would possibly reverse this development,” the analysts wrote.
Crypto markets have a tendency to maneuver on huge occasions: coverage bulletins, product launches or political adjustments. Barclays pointed to previous bursts of exercise, just like the March 2024 spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) inflows or the pro-crypto presidential win in November as key drivers of short-term spikes. However within the absence of such occasions, the financial institution sees structural progress as missing.
One space that would stir the market is regulation. Barclays highlighted the pending CLARITY Act, laws that might assist outline the road between digital commodities and securities and make clear which U.S. company — the U.S. Securities and Change Fee (SEC) or the smaller Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC) — regulates which property. Whereas not a assured market mover, the invoice might ease operational uncertainty for crypto firms and traders alike. If handed, it might open the door for clearer product launches, particularly in tokenized property.
Coinbase stays a focus in Barclays’ evaluation. Whereas the corporate is increasing into derivatives and tokenized fairness buying and selling, the financial institution sees headwinds from shrinking spot volumes and rising working prices.
“COIN has a quantity [of] progress initiatives in addition to latest acquisitions that would begin to grow to be extra impactful,” the report acknowledged. However, analysts revised their worth goal for the inventory right down to $291, citing a extra conservative earnings outlook.
Tokenization continues to achieve consideration from each crypto-native and conventional finance corporations. BlackRock (BLK), Robinhood (HOOD), and others have been piloting merchandise on this house. However Barclays cautions the development is early-stage and unlikely to materially impression earnings in 2026.
In the meantime, the U.S. political surroundings has turned extra favorable for digital property following latest elections. Nevertheless, Barclays sees a lot of this optimism already priced into the market. Any legislative motion, just like the CLARITY Act, would wish to go by way of the Senate and survive doable authorized challenges earlier than having any sensible impression.
In sum, 2026 could also be a transitional 12 months for crypto. With declining retail exercise and no speedy tailwinds, firms are specializing in long-term bets like tokenized finance and compliance upgrades. Whether or not these investments bear fruit subsequent 12 months or additional out stays unsure.