Given the present state of the crypto market, all on-chain metrics point out {that a} bear cycle is underway. Nevertheless, the incoming pink season is probably not as extreme as earlier ones, in accordance with an evaluation by CryptoQuant.
The newest weekly report from the market analysis agency revealed that BTC might report a 55% drawdown from its all-time excessive throughout the bear season. Such a transfer may place the asset’s backside round $56,000, marking the smallest drawdown on report.
BTC May Backside at $56K
Traditionally, bitcoin bear market bottoms have aligned with the realized worth metric. The realized worth is presently close to $56,000 and is barely rising. This has led market consultants to imagine the incoming bear cycle might be shallow. Notably, analysts count on BTC to seek out intermediate help round $70,000.
These predictions come because the bitcoin bull cycle turns bearish amid unfavourable market situations. Demand progress has slowed, and derivatives markets are experiencing a weakening threat urge for food. With demand waves driving Bitcoin’s four-year cycles, the present drawdown reinforces the assumption that Bitcoin’s behaviour is ruled by expansions and contractions in demand progress.
The market has seen three main demand waves since 2023, pushed by the launch of america spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, the U.S. presidential election end result, and the rise of Bitcoin Treasury corporations. Nevertheless, the demand pattern has reversed since early October 2025, suggesting that this cycle has realized the majority of its incremental demand wave.
Sadly, bear seasons have a tendency to start when demand progress peaks and rolls over, no matter provide facet dynamics.
The Onset of the Bear Market
Moreover, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have grow to be internet sellers in This autumn 2025, sustaining a pattern that sharply contrasts the sturdy accumulation seen in This autumn 2024. By this time final 12 months, ETF holdings had risen from 293,000 BTC to 496,000 BTC; nonetheless, they’ve declined by 24,000 BTC this 12 months. Addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC are actually echoing the diminished demand recorded on the finish of 2021, simply earlier than the 2022 bear market.
On the derivatives entrance, the 365-day transferring common of perpetual futures funding charges has fallen to its lowest degree in two years. Because of this buyers are much less prepared to take care of lengthy publicity – this sample is usually noticed throughout bear phases.
The submit On-Chain Metrics Counsel Shallow Bitcoin Bear Market with $56K Backside appeared first on CryptoPotato.