After topping within the $120,000-$125,000 zone earlier in October 2025 after which sliding into the mid-$80,000s, Bitcoin is close to $87,700 on the each day chart, and the setup seems like a simple excuse to lock in income and begin the 12 months recent.
That’s the place the historical past drawback begins. Throughout the month-to-month return warmth map, January posts a mean acquire of +9.76% and a median of +9.54%. February can also be constructive on common at +14.3%, whereas March’s median flips destructive at -2.19%, exhibiting that early-year power exists, however it’s uneven.
Sure, January isn’t all the time inexperienced for BTC. It delivered -32.1% in 2015, -28.1% in 2018 and -16.9% in 2022, so the warning isn’t “January all the time pumps,” it’s “January usually punishes sellers who anticipated a simple exit.”
The year-end combine provides context: November averages +36.6%, however December’s median is -2.68%, that means many late-year exits occur into noise.
Why not?
The “don’t promote into January” case is much less about superstition and extra about positioning. Finish-of-year promoting usually occurs for sensible causes, and when that offer is completed, worth can rebound quick on lighter resistance.
Lately, January printed +39.9% in 2023 and +29.6% in 2020. Even 2025 opened with a +9.54% January earlier than latecomers spoiled the social gathering.
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None of this ensures a rally. But when BTC enters January already down from its 2025 peak and sitting under the psychological $90,000 line, historical past says the larger threat could also be promoting too late, not too early.