Bitcoin was buying and selling close to $87,834 on Dec. 26 because it underperformed gold and main fairness indices, prompting questions on whether or not this cycle is unfolding in a different way.
In a Cointelegraph interview, analyst Benjamin Cowen argued the present backdrop appears much like 2019, with bitcoin reacting extra to realized liquidity than to expectations.
Liquidity, not optimism
Cowen stated shares and gold have been buoyed by anticipation of future financial easing, whereas bitcoin has been slower to reply.
He stated bitcoin tends to want a clearer macro catalyst earlier than it will probably outperform.
Cowen stated:
“Bitcoin seems way more delicate to precise liquidity situations relatively than optimism alone.”
Apathy stands out
Cowen pointed to subdued market consideration in contrast with prior cycle peaks.
He stated topping throughout a interval of low retail enthusiasm can be uncommon for bitcoin.
Cowen stated:
“This market has been marked by relative apathy.”
4-year cycle debate
Whereas some commentators argue bitcoin’s four-year cycle framework is not related, Cowen stated broader market cycles nonetheless matter.
He highlighted macro headwinds akin to labor market tendencies and restrictive monetary situations as potential drags into 2026.
Cowen stated:
“Macro headwinds … might proceed to weigh on Bitcoin into 2026, even when short-term rallies happen alongside the best way.”
Course of over worth targets
Cowen emphasised “course of over prediction,” specializing in how traders take into consideration danger, cycles, and persistence when simple liquidity isn’t assured.
He additionally briefly addressed altcoins, saying expectations for fast rotations could also be misplaced.