On January 2nd of this 12 months, American President Donald Trump ordered a focused strike to seize the President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro.
The assault was profitable, to the extent that Maduro was captured, thus ending his thirteen-year-long dictatorship.
The value of Bitcoin rose throughout these days, however in actuality, its ascent had begun the day earlier than, and it most likely had nothing to do with the US navy motion in Venezuela.
Nonetheless, there are connections between BTC and what’s occurring within the South American nation.
The Alleged Bitcoin Reserve
After Maduro’s seize, studies started circulating a couple of potential immense BTC reserve in Venezuela.
The South American state a number of years in the past had launched its personal kind of cryptocurrency, the Petro, whose undertaking, nevertheless, miserably failed inside just a few years.
The actual fact, nevertheless, is that these Petro had been offered in trade for Bitcoin, due to this fact the Venezuelan state has collected BTC prior to now.
In response to on-chain knowledge monitored by BitcoinTreasuries.internet, there seem like 240 BTC in wallets related to Venezuela.
As a substitute, the information circulating after Maduro’s seize even mentions 600,000 BTC, which is considerably greater than the 328,000 held by the USA itself.
It ought to be famous, nevertheless, that the info from BitcoinTreasuries.internet comes straight from the general public Bitcoin blockchain , whereas the knowledge within the information seems to come back from intelligence sources. Moreover, these could be unconfirmed studies.
The purpose is that there doesn’t appear to be any on-chain proof that the Venezuelan State’s wallets maintain a complete of 600,000 BTC, however in concept, it can’t be dominated out that they could have used nameless and untracked wallets.
If the information had been true, it’s conceivable that the USA may handle to grab these BTC and subsequently add them to their strategic Bitcoin reserve. Alternatively, it’s potential that the Venezuelan state may need to promote them, provided that they’d be value greater than 60 billion {dollars} in complete as of in the present day.
Nonetheless, the very fact stays that the information just isn’t solely unconfirmed in the intervening time, but in addition utterly missing in proof.
The Geopolitical State of affairs
The Venezuelan disaster, nevertheless, might additionally produce other impacts on the worth of Bitcoin.
Certainly, this occasion is reshaping the political panorama of South America and has vital repercussions on international markets, notably affecting the worth of oil.
Venezuela certainly has immense oil reserves, which on one hand makes it a extremely coveted goal by the USA, whereas alternatively positions it as a possible main participant within the international oil market.
Moreover, Venezuela ranks among the many prime 5 international locations in Latin America for cryptocurrency adoption, with a transaction quantity of practically 45 billion {dollars} between July 2024 and June 2025.
After the information of the assault, the crypto markets skilled some volatility, with the worth of BTC briefly dropping beneath $90,000 as a consequence of fears of a possible escalation of the battle. Nonetheless, inside just a few hours, it shortly rebounded above $91,000, marking a 1.5% enhance in 24 hours.
It’s seemingly that these fluctuations are usually as a result of response of world markets to this information, slightly than a direct affect on the crypto markets.
The Worth of Bitcoin
Within the following three days, the worth of BTC then surged above $94,000, nevertheless it was a false bullish sign.
The important thing level is that the motion above $91,000 occurred on a Sunday, which is when main institutional traders are usually not lively.
It’s due to this fact potential that this upward motion was triggered by retail traders, who’re definitely not recognized for his or her total acumen.
On Monday, as conventional markets reopened after the weekend, the upward pattern continued, solely to find the next day that it was a false bullish sign.
Now the worth of BTC has successfully returned to the degrees of Friday and Saturday, that’s, earlier than the information of the assault on Venezuela unfold.
It’s potential that after the native minimal peak on December 18th (beneath $85,000), a part characterised by a small rebound was triggered, which at the very least had the power to interrupt the earlier downward part.
As for a brand new upward part, it may be needed to attend at the very least till tomorrow, and maybe over the weekend, retail traders received a bit too carried away with enthusiasm, making an attempt to anticipate this new potential bull part just a few days too early.
The Impression on Bitcoin of Trump’s Assault on Venezuela
In abstract, the affect on Bitcoin’s worth from Trump’s assault on Venezuela was minimal and decidedly short-lived.
It could have generated a little bit of extreme enthusiasm amongst retail speculators lively over the weekend, which, nevertheless, utterly dissipated within the following two days.
Nonetheless, if the information in regards to the 600,000 BTC owned by the Venezuelan authorities had been true, spending them would have a decidedly unfavourable affect on the worth of Bitcoin. Conversely, in the event that they had been seized by the USA and added to their reserve indefinitely, the affect could possibly be constructive.
As for the affect stemming from geopolitical points, it stays notably troublesome to foretell as of in the present day, provided that Trump is a slightly unpredictable president, and it’s difficult to exactly anticipate what he may do sooner or later.