Solana’s verified X account fired a shot on Jan. 14: “Starknet has 8 day by day lively customers, 10 day by day transactions, and nonetheless someway has a 1b MC and 15b FDV[…] Ship it straight to 0.”
The information used within the ‘sh*tpost’ seems to hint again to an April 2024 snapshot, because the FDV determine was mistaken. Present CryptoSlate knowledge reveals Starknet’s absolutely diluted valuation round $900 million, not $15 billion.
Whereas overshooting the valuation is one factor, the truth that Solana’s official account known as for customers to “ship [Starknet] straight to 0” actually highlights the place the trade is in 2026. A challenge that’s searching for severe institutional cash to maneuver on chain is actively calling for the downfall of a competitor chain (albeit by way of an ‘intern’ managed social media account).
Nonetheless, the broader query holds: how do you measure the hole between what a community is price and what it truly does?
Valuation is not utilization, however some networks value like they’ve each.
The actual problem lies in separating what’s straightforward to inflate, reminiscent of notional perpetual futures quantity and deal with exercise, from what’s more durable to pretend: payment stress measured by way of REV (Actual Financial Worth), which mixes chain charges and MEV ideas that customers truly pay for execution precedence.
The metric stack that issues
Market cap is split by circulating provide, whereas FDV is split by complete provide.
Exercise metrics are cut up into spot DEX quantity measuring on-chain swaps and perpetual futures quantity, which DefiLlama defines as notional traded quantity, together with leverage.
A dealer opening a $100,000 place with a $10,000 margin counts the complete $100,000 towards quantity, making perp numbers giant by design and weak to inflation by way of zero-fee buying and selling or factors applications that reward exercise no matter real demand.
REV cuts by way of this noise by measuring what customers truly pay to make use of a sequence.
DefiLlama defines it as chain charges plus MEV ideas. Excessive quantity with low REV reveals notional churn pushed by incentives quite than natural financial exercise.
Utilizing mid-January 2026 knowledge, we pulled 30-day spot DEX quantity and 30-day perp quantity for the highest 50 blockchain infrastructures ranked by market cap on CoinGecko.
Solana reveals $121.8 billion in spot and $32.4 billion in perps, totaling $154.2 billion in mixed buying and selling exercise towards an FDV of $90.7 billion for a ratio of 0.59.
The community’s speculative worth sits round half of 1 month’s buying and selling exercise, and its quantity is distributed throughout dozens of DEXs, together with Jupiter, Raydium, and Orca, whereas posting day by day REV persistently above $1 million, with tens of millions of lively addresses processing tens of millions of transactions.
Arbitrum reveals $15 billion in spot and $37.8 billion in perps, totaling $52.8 billion towards an FDV of $2.2 billion for a ratio of 0.04.
That appears compelling till you test focus: Variational, a single perpetual change, accounts for $24.9 billion of that perp quantity, representing roughly 66% of the chain’s perpetual buying and selling.
Variational launched a factors program on Dec. 17, with documentation stating that the VAR token is not stay but and that roughly 50% of the provision is earmarked for group distribution.
That is textbook “mercenary quantity,” the place merchants stack factors forward of a token launch and should reassess as soon as rewards finish, that means Arbitrum’s month-to-month quantity may drop by $20 billion if Variational’s exercise normalizes post-airdrop. Nevertheless, its spot DEX quantity and $3 billion TVL would stay intact.
Starknet tells an excellent sharper story with $208 million in spot however $36.4 billion in perps, totaling $36.6 billion towards an FDV of $900 million for a ratio of 0.025.
Prolonged, a single perpetual change, accounts for primarily all of Starknet’s perp quantity in near-total dominance whereas working an ongoing factors program launched in April 2025 with weekly distributions, referral incentives, and payment reductions tied to quantity.
The actual sign comes from Starknet’s 30-day chain charges sitting round $186,293 in response to DefiLlama, a tiny determine relative to $36.4 billion in month-to-month notional perp quantity that reveals excessive notional exercise with out corresponding payment stress pushed by incentives quite than real financial demand.
Optimism reveals $8.2 billion in spot and $6.5 billion in perps, totaling $14.7 billion, towards an FDV of $8 billion, for a ratio of 0.54, with quantity distributed throughout a number of venues quite than concentrated in single incentivized protocols.
Each Optimism and Arbitrum put up significant day by day REV usually above $500,000 and infrequently exceeding $1 million throughout high-activity durations, demonstrating that customers pay for blockspace and execution precedence past simply farming factors.
Avalanche reveals $4.1 billion in spot with minimal perps towards an FDV of $12 billion for a ratio round 3x. As compared, Polkadot reveals a mixed market cap of underneath $1 billion towards an FDV of round $10 billion, for a ratio above 10x.
Moreover, Algorand carries an FDV close to $8 billion, with minimal exercise, leading to ratios within the double digits, as networks are priced for ecosystems that have not scaled or have seen utilization migrate elsewhere.
Low ratios sign sturdiness questions, not ensures
A low FDV-to-volume ratio would not robotically sign undervaluation or shopping for alternative however quite poses a sturdiness query: both valuation rises as a result of quantity proves sticky and monetizable, or quantity mean-reverts when incentives fade and mercenary capital strikes on.
The reply relies on whether or not the exercise is natural or incentive-driven and whether or not it is concentrated or distributed throughout a number of venues and use instances.
Arbitrum’s 0.04 ratio adjustments essentially if over 60% of its perp quantity tied to a pre-token factors program disappears after Variational’s airdrop. Nevertheless, this would not essentially injury its broader ecosystem, given substantial spot DEX quantity and TVL exceeding $3 billion.
Starknet’s 0.025 ratio faces an excellent sharper take a look at given Prolonged’s full dominance and express farming incentives with weekly distributions.
Whether or not quantity persists after the factors season ends will decide if the ratio displays real alternative or a short lived distortion that collapses when incentives cease flowing, particularly given its market cap of round $454 million with solely 50.43% of provide unlocked.
Solana’s 0.59 ratio sits greater however displays quantity distributed throughout dozens of venues, with day by day REV persistently exceeding that of most layer-2 blockchains, indicating sustained natural demand throughout a number of product classes quite than dependence on any single incentivized protocol.
REV offers the clearest sign for separating actual demand from churn. If a sequence posts $50 billion in month-to-month perp quantity however collects $10,000 in day by day charges, the quantity drives level accumulation quite than financial demand. In distinction, networks that monetize throughput present it in payment knowledge that scales with exercise ranges.
Focus serves as a key ahead indicator as a result of when greater than 50% of a sequence’s quantity ties to a single venue, that is a single protocol’s cycle quite than broad ecosystem adoption.
When that protocol’s incentives finish, or customers migrate to raised execution elsewhere, quantity metrics compress quickly. Factors applications create short-term surges that distort metrics for months till the true take a look at arrives after the token launch, when farmers reassess execution high quality and payment construction with out extra incentives.
Solana reveals more healthy patterns with quantity distributed throughout main DEXs and perp exercise cut up between a number of venues, suggesting real product-market match.
Cosmos (ATOM) presents a structural edge case with FDV close to $4 billion, however ecosystem exercise is going on on app-chains like Osmosis and dYdX quite than the hub itself.
Which means that low DEX and perp quantity do not seize precise utility centered on interchain communication and shared safety infrastructure, the place token worth derives from coordination quite than direct buying and selling throughput.
Solana’s tweet was theater with demonstrably mistaken numbers, however the query it raised about when valuation displays what networks do versus what they could do stays price inspecting systematically.
DEX quantity, perp quantity, REV, and venue focus present quantifiable indicators that separate networks priced for present site visitors from these priced for site visitors they’re ready on or for site visitors that may disappear completely when factors cease flowing.