Bitcoin (BTC) almost touched $98,000 in a single day earlier than settling round $96,000, up roughly 5.5% over current periods. The rally reignited a well-known query: is that this the setup for a sustained transfer above $100,000, or one other fragile push constructed on skinny order books and positioning video games?
Market Cap $1.9T
24h Quantity $46.87B
All-Time Excessive $126,173.18
Glassnode’s newest evaluation reveals a nuanced image, the place mechanical positioning drove the current transfer whereas broader structural demand stays uneven and liquidity stays compressed.
Provide meets demand at a crucial threshold
The present value sits inside a dense cluster of long-term holder provide collected between April and July 2025, spanning roughly $93,000 to $110,000.
Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution heatmap exhibits this overhead provide zone, the place rebounds since November have repeatedly stalled. Every try has encountered renewed promoting stress, stopping the worth from sustaining structural restoration.
This area has persistently served as a transition barrier, separating corrective phases from sturdy bull markets.
The short-term holder’s price foundation at the moment stands at $98,300, reflecting the common entry value of current consumers. Glassnode notes that reclaiming and holding above this stage has traditionally marked the transition from corrective phases into extra sturdy uptrends.
The worth’s means to consolidate above $98,300 stays needed to revive confidence and lay the foundations for sustained momentum.
Lengthy-term holder conduct supplies context for the quantity of overhead provide the market should take up. Whereas long-term holders stay internet sellers, the distribution fee has slowed materially from the aggressive promoting seen all through the second half of 2025.
Glassnode stories that long-term holders are at the moment realizing roughly 12,800 BTC per week in internet revenue, down from cycle peaks above 100,000 BTC per week.
This moderation suggests profit-taking stays lively however far much less aggressive than throughout prior distribution phases.
Institutional flows stabilize, spot markets enhance
Institutional balance-sheet flows have accomplished a full reset.
After extended outflows throughout spot ETFs, corporates, and sovereign entities, internet flows have stabilized. Spot ETFs have turned optimistic, re-establishing themselves as the first marginal purchaser.
Bitcoin ETFs register $1.5 billion in internet inflows for January, with almost $1.6 billion in inflows registered between Jan. 13 and 14, in keeping with Farside Buyers information.
Spot market conduct has turned constructive. Binance and mixture trade cumulative quantity delta measures have returned to a buy-dominant regime, reflecting a shift away from persistent sell-side stress.
Coinbase, which has been probably the most constant supply of promoting all through consolidation, has meaningfully slowed its distribution.
Whereas spot participation just isn’t but displaying the persistent, aggressive accumulation sometimes seen throughout full development enlargement phases, the transition again right into a net-buying posture represents a constructive structural shift.
Mechanical strikes on skinny quantity
Brief liquidations mechanically strengthened the push into the $96,000 area, however it unfolded on comparatively skinny derivatives quantity.
Glassnode notes that futures turnover has remained properly under the elevated exercise seen all through most of 2025.
The breakout occurred in a relatively gentle liquidity setting the place modest positioning shifts drove disproportionately giant value responses. In sensible phrases, it didn’t take vital new capital to drive shorts out of the market and carry the worth by way of resistance.
This dynamic connects on to the liquidity downside seen so as books. Aggregated 2% market depth has declined roughly 30% from 2025 highs, in keeping with information supplier Kaiko.
On Binance particularly, 1% depth exceeded $600 million on the October 2025 peak however fell under $400 million by Dec. 20. Thinner books amplify value swings, making the tape extra delicate to giant flows and strategic positioning.
Blockchain information provides texture to this narrative.
On Dec. 31, market maker Wintermute net-deposited 1,213 BTC to Binance, with transfers concentrated throughout low-activity home windows.
Massive trade deposits throughout skinny hours increase the danger of outsized tape impression, particularly when books lack depth.
Nevertheless, the manipulation framing has limits. A extensively circulated declare on Dec. 30 alleged “multi-billion greenback manipulation,” however on-chain transfers referenced totaled lower than $30 million.
The higher clarification for sharp intraday strikes is structural fragility mixed with stop-hunting fairly than provable coordinated schemes.
$100,000 as a mechanical attractor
The $100,000 stage sits at a convergence level the place price foundation, choices publicity, and vendor hedging align. Coin Metrics notes that decision open curiosity is clustered round $100,000 strike costs for late-January expiries.
Glassnode stories that sellers are brief gamma between roughly $95,000 and $104,000, which may reinforce upside strikes as sellers hedge by shopping for spot or futures when costs rise.
In a brief gamma setting, hedging flows now not take up value strikes. As a substitute, they reinforce them.
This construction creates fragile stability. Volatility can stay low whereas value is contained, however as soon as momentum develops, strikes usually tend to speed up than fade.
With spot buying and selling across the $95,000 to $96,000 space, the worth has moved into a brief gamma zone the place sustained motion supported by quantity is extra prone to set off directional hedging flows.
Choices conduct across the $100,000 strike highlights conditional upside expectations. In brief to mid-term maturities as much as roughly three months, the decision premium purchased has considerably outweighed the decision premium bought, indicating lively demand for near-dated upside publicity.
In distinction, longer-dated maturities present the other conduct, as richer name premiums additional out the curve had been used as alternatives to promote upside.
This break up suggests the market is positioning for a possible retest of the $100,000 space whereas concurrently expressing hesitation about sustained acceptance above that stage over longer horizons.
Volatility deferred, not resolved
Implied volatility stays low throughout the curve, with Deribit’s DVOL studying across the 40s.
Nevertheless, this studying masks underlying fragility. Skew continues to cost draw back threat, with the 25-delta skew remaining biased towards places, significantly at mid and longer maturities.
This displays a market that’s snug carrying publicity however unwilling to take action with out insurance coverage.
The coexistence of low volatility and adverse skew highlights a key stress. Individuals will not be positioning for instant draw back, however they proceed to pay for uneven safety.
Volatility will increase progressively with maturity, suggesting uncertainty is assigned to time fairly than to a selected near-term catalyst, according to a market that expects short-term stability whereas remaining uncovered to latent threat.
The $100,000 check
If Bitcoin is genuinely organising for a sustained transfer above $100,000, two circumstances have to align.
First, value should reclaim and maintain above the $98,300 short-term holder price foundation, inserting current consumers again in revenue and lowering the inducement to promote into rallies.
Second, liquidity and flows want to enhance concurrently. ETF inflows remaining optimistic present one sign, however depth stabilization issues extra. If the sub-$400 million Binance 1% depth regime persists, the market stays susceptible to whipsaws.
Revenue-taking has cooled, distribution from long-term holders has slowed, and traditional late-cycle euphoria metrics aren’t flashing crimson. However liquidity fragility introduces a wildcard.
Order books are measurably thinner than at October highs, and enormous flows throughout low-activity home windows can produce outsized tape strikes.
The $100,000 stage issues as a result of it is the place a number of structural forces converge, corresponding to price foundation, choices publicity, and vendor hedging, making it a pure attractor if circumstances stabilize.
Whether or not Bitcoin reclaims $100,000 and holds relies upon much less on narrative and extra on whether or not the market can rebuild depth whereas sustaining optimistic flows. The indications are inexperienced, distribution stress has eased, and institutional demand is stabilizing.
However the mechanics stay fragile, and the current transfer occurred on skinny quantity with mechanical help from brief masking.
That is the present state of play, the place modest capital can generate vital motion, however sustainability requires deeper accumulation to observe.