Bernstein’s newest 2026 U.S. IT {hardware} outlook highlights how ai information storage will seize the biggest share of worth from the continued synthetic intelligence build-out.
Bernstein forecasts an AI-driven information surge by means of 2026
In its new 2026 report, analysis agency Bernstein argues that the AI-driven information explosion will proceed by means of 2026 with no indicators of slowing. Analyst Mark Newman writes that mannequin builders have little incentive to curb spending as AI capabilities preserve bettering and information necessities develop.
Based on Newman, builders should feed ever-larger datasets into coaching runs to remain aggressive. Furthermore, the agency notes that AI coaching workloads, content material creation and long-term enterprise retention are all combining to drive unprecedented demand for capability.
“Reminiscence and hard-disk drive suppliers stand to learn most from these tendencies,” Newman stated, calling the present section an “unprecedented reminiscence and storage tremendous cycle.” That stated, Bernstein stresses that the structural demand backdrop, quite than short-term cycles, is the core driver.
Reminiscence and storage suppliers emerge as high beneficiaries
The report concludes that reminiscence and storage suppliers are the clear winners as AI workloads develop. Bernstein says consumers are successfully worth insensitive as a result of they need to safe storage capability no matter price, pushing costs greater throughout the sector.
SanDisk receives Bernstein’s highest reward for 2026. The agency raised its SanDisk goal worth to $580, citing extreme NAND shortages and worth will increase it describes as unprecedented within the latest historical past of storage markets.
Seagate additionally earns a high choose designation. Furthermore, Bernstein characterizes Seagate as “a much less unstable beneficiary of the information explosion” relative to different storage suppliers, positioning it as a steadier technique to achieve publicity to rising capability wants.
The agency expects the reminiscence storage tremendous cycle to run by means of no less than 2026. It argues that AI coaching, inference, richer media codecs and lengthening company retention insurance policies will preserve utilization and pricing elevated.
Broadcom secures management in AI ASIC market
Bernstein additionally highlights Broadcom as a structural winner within the AI accelerator stack. Analyst Stacy Rasgon reaffirmed an Outperform score and set a $475 worth goal on January 9, underscoring confidence in Broadcom’s AI roadmap.
The agency met with Broadcom management to deal with questions on rising AI competitors and customer-owned tooling. Nevertheless, Bernstein got here away satisfied these threats are exaggerated, arguing that rivals can’t rapidly replicate Broadcom’s accrued benefits.
These benefits embrace 3D chip stacking, 400G serdes know-how and in-house substrate manufacturing. As well as, Broadcom is growing methods that would cut back or get rid of the necessity for interposers, which might additional differentiate its AI ASIC platform.
Bernstein notes that Broadcom advantages from Nvidia‘s speedy innovation cycle. The corporate allows XPU prospects to trace Nvidia’s roadmap, making Broadcom the one provider that may present this stage of compatibility within the broadcom ai asics section.
IBM positioned for quantum computing upside
Past classical AI infrastructure, IBM stands out in Bernstein’s outlook for early quantum computing adoption. The agency estimates a possible 23% upside for IBM tied to preliminary industrial use instances anticipated to emerge round 2026.
Bernstein hyperlinks that chance to enterprises exploring specialised workloads the place quantum methods could ship efficiency or optimization benefits. Nevertheless, it nonetheless frames quantum as an early-stage, focused driver quite than a broad alternative for conventional compute.
OEM {hardware} makers face margin and earnings strain
Whereas element and infrastructure suppliers profit from rising demand, authentic gear producers are beneath pressure. Bernstein warns that surging reminiscence and storage prices are compressing margins for main PC and server distributors.
HP Inc. and SMCI may see earnings fall by as a lot as 19% as element inflation outpaces their skill to boost system costs. Furthermore, Dell and HPE additionally face downward strain on profitability as they take up greater bill-of-materials prices.
Apple has partial safety within the close to time period due to long-term provider agreements that lock in pricing. Nevertheless, Bernstein expects Apple could ultimately want to extend machine costs later in 2026, a transfer that would gradual unit progress even when income holds up.
These dynamics illustrate how the identical information growth that advantages storage and element makers can create hp dell earnings strain when handed by means of to {hardware} producers with much less pricing energy.
AI workloads reshape enterprise information storage methods
Bernstein emphasizes that the surge in AI coaching and inference is essentially reshaping enterprise information methods. Corporations are retaining extra info for longer durations to feed future fashions and to help richer content material workloads.
Consequently, the information storage necessities for ai prolong past hyperscaler coaching clusters into broader company IT estates. That stated, the agency argues that solely a subset of distributors are positioned to monetize this shift constantly.
In Bernstein’s view, the primary_keyword ai information storage firms embrace main reminiscence producers, hard-disk drive producers and superior networking chip suppliers that straight allow massive-scale information pipelines.
Outlook: storage-led cycle to outline AI infrastructure economics
Bernstein concludes that elevated reminiscence and storage pricing will possible persist by means of 2026 as AI improvement accelerates. Furthermore, it believes consumers will proceed to prioritize capability and efficiency over near-term price optimization.
Because of this, element suppliers reminiscent of SanDisk, Seagate, Broadcom and IBM seem finest positioned to learn from the AI information surge. In the meantime, OEMs together with HP Inc., SMCI, Dell and HPE should navigate rising enter prices and potential unit demand dangers.
General, Bernstein’s 2026 outlook paints a {hardware} panorama outlined by a permanent information growth, the place these controlling essential storage and compute applied sciences seize the lion’s share of AI-related worth.