ONDO has misplaced over 65% of its worth since October as heavy promoting strain continues to dominate the altcoin market. Whereas Bitcoin has proven relative stability at key ranges, many mid-cap tokens like ONDO have struggled to seek out constant demand. This drawdown has pushed sentiment towards the bearish aspect, particularly as merchants stay cautious round liquidity occasions and token unlocks.
Nonetheless, some analysts argue that the present dip is just not purely an indication of weak point. A CryptoQuant report explains that the headlines might scream “worth drop,” however the on-chain knowledge is pointing towards “alternative” as an alternative. The main target is now on ONDO’s huge 1.94 billion token unlock scheduled for January 18, 2026. Traditionally, unlocks can set off panic promoting, as buyers anticipate greater circulating provide and extra distribution strain.
Nevertheless, this time could also be completely different. The report means that bigger market individuals are actively positioning via the decline, utilizing the worry as a liquidity window. Slightly than treating the unlock as a motive to exit, the info hints that “sensible cash” is stepping in to soak up provide whereas retail confidence stays fragile. That units the stage for a vital take a look at.
Sensible Cash Absorption Alerts Are Constructing
The CryptoQuant report outlines why bigger buyers look like ignoring the noise round ONDO’s decline. The primary sign is the “whale defend.” Regardless of the sharp correction for the reason that December 2024 peak, Spot Common Order Measurement continues to be dominated by “Huge Whale Orders,” proven via constant inexperienced dots on the chart. This means establishments are utilizing weak point to soak up liquidity, with the $0.35–$0.40 zone appearing as a main accumulation vary.
Second, ONDO has formally entered a Taker Purchase Dominant part. The 90-day Cumulative Quantity Delta (CVD) stays optimistic and continues rising, displaying that market purchase strain has outweighed market sells for months. That is necessary as a result of takers characterize aggressive individuals who purchase on the ask with out ready for higher entries.
The report frames this alignment as “taker alpha.” When massive whale orders and aggressive taker shopping for strengthen whereas the value falls, it usually displays absorption. If this continues via the unlock, ONDO might be constructing a coiled-spring setup for a 2026 RWA breakout.
ONDO Extends Downtrend as Bulls Defend Key Demand Zone
ONDO stays below heavy strain after a protracted decline that has erased most of its 2025 upside. The three-day chart exhibits a transparent breakdown from the previous consolidation vary close to $0.90–$1.00, the place worth repeatedly didn’t reclaim momentum throughout the second half of the 12 months. As soon as sellers pressured a decisive transfer decrease, the market shortly transitioned right into a steep downtrend marked by weak bounces and constant decrease highs.
On the time of writing, ONDO is buying and selling close to $0.33 after slipping under the $0.40 deal with, a psychological degree that beforehand acted as short-term help. This drop locations the token deep under its key transferring averages, with the shorter development traces rolling over and appearing as overhead resistance. The failed restoration makes an attempt all through late 2025 affirm that sellers have stayed in management, whereas patrons have struggled to generate sufficient quantity to shift the development.
Nevertheless, worth is now approaching a possible demand zone round $0.30–$0.35, the place volatility traditionally will increase and dip patrons might attempt to step in. If this space fails, the chart suggests draw back may speed up. Nonetheless, a robust protection may open the door for a stabilization part earlier than any significant rebound.
Featured picture from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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