Prediction markets have turned extra bearish on bitcoin after a weekend sell-off that briefly pushed BTC beneath $75,000 on Monday.
Polymarket merchants priced a 72% probability that bitcoin falls beneath $65,000 in 2026, with practically $1 million in quantity on the contract.
Different massive wagers included implied odds of 61% for BTC dropping beneath $55,000, and 54% for bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 by year-end.
Draw back bets rise after post-election good points fade
The shift in betting odds comes as bitcoin has erased good points made after President Donald Trump’s November 2024 election win.
The drawdown additionally put stress on Technique, the biggest publicly listed bitcoin holder.
Bitcoin’s worth fell beneath Technique’s common buy price for the primary time since late 2023.
Analysts cite bear pattern and liquidity situations
CryptoQuant reiterated {that a} bear market has been in place since November 2025, when bitcoin fell beneath its 365-day transferring common.
CryptoQuant head of analysis Julio Moreno wrote on X:
“Don’t attempt to discover bottoms after a brand new leg down. Bear market bottoms take months to kind.”
Quantum Economics CEO Mati Greenspan stated bitcoin’s main objective isn’t worth appreciation.
He wrote that bitcoin’s “predominant use case is to supply a type of cash that’s unbiased of governments and banks.”
International Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal individually linked the downturn to tight US liquidity situations somewhat than bitcoin-specific elements.
Forecasts and Polymarket’s authorized stress
A possible drop beneath $65,000 would run counter to some forecasts from main companies.
Grayscale beforehand stated bitcoin might surpass an all-time excessive of $126,000 by June 2026.
Commonplace Chartered and Bernstein have projected $150,000 in 2026, after revising earlier targets amid slower inflows into US spot bitcoin ETFs.