Rongchai Wang
Feb 02, 2026 19:09
Bitcoin crashes beneath November lows with 14-day RSI in oversold territory. Glassnode information exhibits sustained promote strain throughout spot, derivatives, and ETF markets.
Bitcoin has crashed by means of a important help stage, dropping to $74,000 after failing to carry November’s lows—a area that beforehand marked the ground earlier than BTC’s surge towards $100,000. The breakdown has pushed the 14-day RSI into deeply oversold territory, a situation not seen for the reason that depths of the 2022 bear market.
Based on Glassnode’s newest Market Pulse report revealed February 2, the promoting is not simply technical. It is structural.
Spot Markets Present Zero Conviction
Spot Cumulative Quantity Delta (CVD) has damaged to new lows, confirming what merchants suspected: there isn’t any significant shopping for beneath the floor. Quantity has spiked, however Glassnode characterizes it as “reactive” fairly than constructive—the type of churn you see throughout capitulation, not accumulation.
“Spot circumstances stay weak,” the report states, noting that at the same time as commerce quantity will increase, “total positioning nonetheless factors to ongoing distribution strain.”
ETF outflows have moderated barely, however that is chilly consolation. The broader image exhibits institutional cash rotating out, not in. With Michael Saylor’s Technique now underwater on its Bitcoin stack—a growth confirmed February 1—the narrative round company Bitcoin adoption has taken a success.
Derivatives Merchants Aren’t Shopping for the Dip Both
Futures open curiosity has declined, suggesting leveraged longs are unwinding fairly than including. Funding charges have cooled as urge for food for lengthy publicity fades. Extra telling: Perpetual CVD has deteriorated additional, with Glassnode flagging “aggressive promote strain from leveraged merchants.”
Choices markets inform the same story. Open curiosity has contracted beneath its decrease band as merchants shut positions and step apart. The volatility unfold has compressed—which means the concern premium that sometimes accompanies crashes is already fading. Merchants aren’t panicking; they’ve already panicked.
On-Chain Indicators Flash Pink
The blockchain itself confirms the stress. Energetic addresses and price volumes have ticked up modestly, however switch quantity stays depressed. Realised cap continues contracting, signaling weak capital inflows at a time when BTC desperately wants recent consumers.
Profitability metrics have deteriorated sharply. Provide in revenue has fallen whereas unrealised losses deepen. Realised losses—cash transferring at costs beneath their buy price—proceed to dominate. That is textbook capitulation conduct.
What Occurs at $74K?
The $74,000 stage now represents a important take a look at. For context, Bitcoin touched $67,065 in early November 2024 earlier than rallying to just about $100,000 by month’s finish. That rally was fueled by post-election optimism round crypto-friendly insurance policies. These expectations have not materialized, and now worth is revisiting ranges from earlier than the hype started.
BTC traded at roughly $79,000 as of February 2, suggesting a modest bounce from the $74,000 low—however Glassnode’s evaluation stays cautious. “Close to-term stabilisation doubtless is determined by promote strain exhausting and demand returning to defend the $74K area,” the report concludes.
With Bitcoin now fallen out of the worldwide prime 10 belongings by market cap—dropping beneath Tesla—the following few weeks will decide whether or not this can be a washout backside or simply one other leg down.
Picture supply: Shutterstock