Bitwise Chief Funding Officer Matt Hougan mentioned markets have been in a protracted winter since early 2025, even when the harm was simple to overlook.
In a memo to shoppers, Hougan mentioned bitcoin is down about 39% from its October 2025 all-time excessive, whereas ether has fallen roughly 53%, with many different tokens dropping extra.
A ‘full-blown’ winter name
Hougan argued traders ought to deal with the present interval as a real winter slightly than a routine correction.
He in contrast it to prior downturns in 2018 and 2022, saying bearish sentiment can overwhelm incremental excellent news.
Hougan wrote:
“Why is the Crypto Worry and Greed Index close to all-time excessive ranges of worry when the brand new Fed chair is a bitcoin fan? As a result of we’re in a crypto winter.”
Institutional flows masked the drawdown
Hougan mentioned the cycle successfully started round January 2025, although bitcoin’s value peak got here later.
He argued that sturdy demand by U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and digital asset treasury autos helped cushion costs, holding the downturn from wanting worse.
In the course of the interval, ETFs and treasuries purchased greater than 744,000 BTC, which he pegged at roughly $75 billion in demand.
Hougan mentioned with out that assist, bitcoin’s drawdown might have been nearer to 60%.
Searching for exhaustion
Hougan mentioned winters typically finish with exhaustion slightly than pleasure, and he described the present temper as resembling prior market bottoms.
He pointed to sturdy financial progress, a shock on the Readability Act, and indicators of sovereign curiosity in bitcoin as potential helps, alongside sentiment gauges like Bitbo’s Bitcoin worry and greed chart.
He added:
“It’s at all times darkest earlier than the daybreak.”