PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the stock-to-flow mannequin, outlined 4 potential paths for bitcoin’s present drawdown in a Feb. 4 put up and video.
He stated bitcoin closed January at $78,000, about 40% under the cycle’s $126,000 all-time excessive.
On his chart, the 200-week transferring common was $58,000 and realized value was $55,000.
4 situations
First, PlanB described a historic “worst case” 80% decline from the $126,000 peak, implying roughly $25,000.
Second, he cited a extra typical backside close to the 200-week transferring common and realized value, inserting a goal zone round $50,000–$60,000.
Third, he floated a shallower retrace that holds simply above the prior cycle’s all-time excessive close to $69,000–$70,000.
Fourth, he stated a near-term low might already be in, referencing $72,900 and about $72,800 as potential bottoms.
Bitcoin later traded as little as $69,031, which might invalidate state of affairs #4.
RSI
He pointed to January’s RSI ending at 49, which he treats as a shift right into a downtrend.
PlanB stated within the video:
“RSI right here, 49. RSI, as you realize, is an index between 0 and 100. And all the pieces above 50 is an uptrend. Every thing under 50 is downtrend.”
Inventory-to-flow and the halving cycle
PlanB reiterated his stock-to-flow worth sign stays round $500,000, whereas emphasizing it isn’t designed to establish tops or bottoms.
He additionally argued the four-year cycle template could also be shifting, noting his framework sometimes sees peaks within the first or second 12 months after a halving, however stated that “it didn’t occur after 2024 halving.”