Bitcoin (BTC) gained as much as 3% Sunday, however some merchants refused to imagine that the BTC value crash was over.
Key factors:
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Bitcoin value comparisons warn that new macro lows are due if the 2022 bear market continues to repeat.
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Transferring averages and the associated fee foundation of the US spot Bitcoin ETFs are in focus.
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Evaluation says {that a} carbon copy of 2022 will not be a certainty.
Bitcoin capitulation “hasn’t occurred but”
Knowledge from TradingView confirmed BTC/USD crossing $71,000, now up 20% versus Friday’s 15-month lows.
Because the weekly shut neared, Bitcoin added attribute volatility, whereas market individuals remained extremely skeptical that the rebound would final.
Importing a chart to X which in contrast present BTC value motion to the 2022 bear market, impartial analyst Filbfilb had no excellent news for bulls.
“Im not going to attempt to costume it up any approach apart from the way it seems,” he commented alongside a chart displaying spot value versus the 50-week exponential shifting common (EMA) at $95,300.
Analyst Tony Severino held related concepts, contributing a number of value indicators and concluding that new lows had been all however assured.
4 extra in your foresight https://t.co/psM23MQiI2 pic.twitter.com/Qu0Pt5QeUz
— Tony Severino, CMT (@TonySeverinoCMT) February 8, 2026
“$BTC ultimate capitulation hasn’t occurred but,” dealer BitBull agreed, like Filbfilb referencing 2022.
“An actual backside will type beneath $50,000 stage the place a lot of the ETF patrons will likely be underwater.”
The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at present have a mean buy-in price of $82,000, per knowledge from monitoring useful resource Checkonchain.
BTC value deja vu continues
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on a key bear market function for Bitcoin based mostly on two different development traces: the 200-week easy (SMA) and exponential shifting averages.
Associated: What crashed Bitcoin? Three theories behind BTC’s journey beneath $60K
Collectively, they type a “cloud” of assist between $58,000 and $68,000.
In considered one of his newest market takes on the weekend, Caleb Franzen, creator of analytics useful resource Cubic Analytics, argued that right here too, the ghost of 2022 was in play.
“In Might 2022, Bitcoin retested its 200-week MA cloud. Bulls stated ‘that is it, we have retested the long-term shifting common & can proceed greater now.’ Value instantly rebounded on that zone, produced a protracted wick, & closed above the midpoint of the weekly vary,” he summarized.
“However then that rally light… Value got here again into the 200W MA cloud just a few weeks later, did not rebound, then sliced by the cloud in June 2022. What are we seeing proper now? The primary retest of the 200W MA cloud with a protracted wick.”
Franzen observe that the market might not replicate the earlier bear market “completely.”
“The fact is that nobody is aware of what occurs subsequent,” he acknowledged.
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