“The parents saying this [crypto] winter is worse than 2018 or 2022 don’t bear in mind 2018 or 2022,” stated Bitwise Chief Funding Officer Matt Hougan on Tuesday.
In 2018, “we had $3,000 Bitcoin and a ‘world pc’ [Ethereum] with no functions and restricted throughput,” he stated earlier than including, “In 2022, we had a complete market collapse and a regulator that needed to place us out of enterprise.”
Issues are a bit of completely different at present as we’ve “stablecoins going to $3 trillion, tokenization going to $200 trillion, a constructive regulatory local weather, and higher tokenomics,” he stated.
Moreover, BlackRock and Apollo are constructing on DeFi, there’s a “massively constructed out infrastructure,” ETFs, and “rising issues about fiat forex.”
“So, yep, I’m optimistic. It doesn’t imply clean crusing, however I’m excited for the trip.”
Earlier Bear Markets Have been Apocalyptic
The present bear market has seen whole capitalization decline 49% from its peak of slightly below $4.4 trillion in October to its low of $2.23 trillion on Feb. 6. That is a lot shallower than earlier bear markets, however it’s not over but. In 2018, markets collapsed by 88%, and in 2022, they crashed by round 73% from the earlier cycle peak to the bear market bottoms.
The 2022 FTX crash “was darkish,” and 2018 “was borderline crypto extinction sentiment,” commented the Kobeissi Letter. The March 2020 Covid crash was additionally apocalyptic, with markets tanking 56% in lower than a month.
The distinction this time, as identified by Hougan, is that the basics for crypto are a lot stronger. Many analysts imagine the present market hunch is pushed not by crypto-native elements however by broader macroeconomic and geopolitical issues.
Glassnode reported that Bitcoin’s crash to $60,000 on Feb. 6 “imposed drastic psychological strain on ‘diamond palms’ similar to the Could 2022 Luna crash.”
“Merely put, long-term holders realized important losses — a uncommon shift in conviction sometimes seen in deeper phases of bear markets.”
The latest drop to $60k imposed drastic psychological strain on “diamond palms,” similar to the Could 2022 LUNA crash.
In each circumstances, the 7D EMA of Lengthy-Time period Holder SOPR fell under 1 after buying and selling for 1-2 years above it.
Merely put, long-term holders realized important… pic.twitter.com/xc6bXzwPYx— glassnode (@glassnode) February 16, 2026
Lengthy Time period Holders Nonetheless in Revenue
Alphractal founder Joao Wedson stated on Monday that the Web Unrealized Revenue/Loss (NUPL) for long-term holders stands at 0.36, “that means long-term holders are nonetheless, on common, in revenue.”
“When Lengthy-Time period Holders’ NUPL enters adverse territory, it means even essentially the most convicted members are holding unrealized losses. Traditionally, this marks the section of most market melancholy.”
In earlier cycles, “this was the ultimate section earlier than the beginning of a brand new bull run,” he stated, noting that we aren’t there but.
Bitcoin was buying and selling round $68,000 on the time of writing after failing once more to prime $70,000 on Monday.
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