Bitcoin bounced again towards $69,000 on Feb. 25 after an intraday flush that printed lows within the low-$60,000s throughout a number of venues, liquidating almost $500 million in brief positions.
The transfer retains value contained in the $60,000-$69,000 vary that has outlined February buying and selling, in line with Glassnode.
But, it would not resolve the structural weak spot that has characterised the market since its 47% drawdown from all-time highs.
The bounce seems to be much less like a macro breakout and extra like a risk-on rebound mixed with a movement and positioning reset after capitulation. Three mechanics clarify the transfer.
Three drivers behind the rally
Cross-market danger urge for food returned. International equities rallied on Feb. 25, led by expertise shares forward of Nvidia’s earnings. Bitcoin traded consistent with different high-beta belongings as danger urge for food improved.
Spot BTC ETF flows flipped optimistic. US spot Bitcoin ETFs printed internet inflows of $257.7 million on Feb. 24, in line with Farside Buyers information. This marked a reversal from the prior day’s $203.8 million outflow.
Nonetheless, the motion would not erase the broader outflow development. Glassnode flags ETF flows as detrimental year-to-date, however it additionally factors to a believable marginal purchaser able to powering a pointy bounce after a flush transfer.
Positioning and choices hedging are normalized. Glassnode flags that perpetual futures funding charges normalized towards impartial, indicating leverage has reset.
Choices markets spiked in short-dated volatility as Bitcoin approached $62,000, then compressed once more as value reclaimed the mid-$60,000s.
This habits suggests panic hedging unwound, a mechanical rebound gas fairly than new bull market demand.
What structural weak spot nonetheless seems to be like
Glassnode’s evaluation is direct: Bitcoin is “stabilizing, not but recovering.”
The market stays trapped between valuation anchors, with the principle demand zone round $60,000-$69,000. At present’s bounce would not change that image.
The 47% drawdown from all-time highs is at traditionally mid-to-late bear-market depth. Roughly 9.2 million BTC held at a loss creates promoting stress on rallies as holders rotate out of underwater positions.
Glassnode’s Accumulation Pattern Rating stays beneath 0.5, indicating restricted conviction from massive holders.
The 90-day Realized Revenue/Loss Ratio beneath 1.0 signifies a loss regime and impaired liquidity situations. Spot Cumulative Quantity Delta stays sharply detrimental, displaying lively distribution and sell-side movement dominance.
ETF flows stay in a broader outflow section regardless of Feb. 24’s optimistic day.
The $60,000 flooring and the $70,000 ceiling
Clear ranges on each side outline Bitcoin’s present vary. The $69,000 space sits on the prime of Glassnode’s $60,000-$69,000 essential demand zone.
Holding this degree on a every day and weekly foundation would assist body at present’s transfer as “reclaiming vary highs” fairly than a failed bounce.
The $65,000 degree serves as a mid-range, and Glassnode notes the market snapped again as short-dated worry light. The $62,000-$62,500 vary is important. Glassnode explicitly flags roughly $62,000 as a degree that “might have opened a transfer towards the excessive 50s if damaged.”
The Feb. 25 intraday flush examined this space and held, explaining the mechanical aid rally that adopted.
The $60,000 degree marks the underside of the February vary. Breaking it could shift expectations towards deeper contraction. Under that, roughly $55,000 represents the Realized Worth, Glassnode’s structural flooring anchor.
Glassnode states explicitly that failure to reclaim ranges above $70,000 retains draw back contraction danger elevated.
The $72,000 degree marks the highest finish of Glassnode’s $60,000-$72,000 hall. Breaking by means of this vary ceiling can be the primary indication that the latest weak spot is resolving.
The roughly $79,200 degree represents the True Market Imply in Glassnode’s valuation construction.
Reclaiming this might represent a real regime sign. Above that, heavy overhead provide clusters sit at $82,000-$97,000 and $100,000-$117,000, the place underwater holders can promote into aid rallies.
What would rely as a real regime shift
Three concrete tells would point out the market has moved from stabilization to restoration.
The primary is sustained ETF inflows. Not only a single $257.7 million day however consecutive intervals of internet optimistic flows that reverse the year-to-date outflow development.
The second is spot markets flipping from sell-dominant to bid absorption, with Glassnode’s spot Cumulative Quantity Delta stabilizing and trending optimistic.
The third is reclaiming increased valuation anchors, shifting above $70,000, then $72,000, then finally the roughly $79,200 True Market Imply.
The underside line
Bitcoin’s bounce again towards $69,000 displays a risk-on rebound mixed with a movement and positioning reset after a capitulation flush.
International equities rallied, US spot Bitcoin ETFs printed a $257.7 million internet influx on Feb. 24, and Glassnode’s on-chain information exhibits leverage has reset whereas choices panic hedging light.
Nonetheless, the structural image hasn’t flipped. Glassnode nonetheless describes the market as stabilizing, not recovering.
Weak accumulation, detrimental spot movement bias, and fragile ETF demand persist. Bulls want to carry $65,000-$69,000 and reclaim ranges above $70,000, then $72,000, earlier than calling the latest weak spot “mounted.”
The “do not lose it” flooring stays $62,000, with $60,000 and roughly $55,000 Realized Worth beneath that. At present’s transfer is mechanical aid, not structural restoration.