With a couple of hours nonetheless to go, Bitcoin is on monitor to put up its worst dropping streak since 2018, with February about to mark a fifth consecutive month-to-month decline.
The run of losses could be the longest since that 2018–2019 bear market and follows what has already been bitcoin’s worst first 50-day begin to a 12 months on report, leaving BTC down greater than 25% 12 months to this point and on the right track for its first-ever back-to-back January and February declines.
Extra? The bitcoin-to-gold ratio fell to 12.288 ounces in February, marking a 70% drawdown over the past 14 months.
Bitcoin can also be about to shut out its worst month since June 2022 because the collapse of Terra-Luna that 12 months despatched the worth plunging by about one-third. With bitcoin at the moment at about $66,000, the decline this February stands at greater than 16%.
However some analysts argue that evaluating the present stretch to 2018 could also be oversimplifying what’s unfolding.
Repricing inside a structural regime shift
“What we’re seeing isn’t simply weak point. It’s repricing inside a structural regime shift,” Mati Greenspan, senior eToro market analyst and founding father of Quantum Economics, advised CoinDesk.
He believes that whereas tariffs, ETF flows and macro fears could clarify the timing of the selloff, they don’t clarify the deeper transfer, which he sees as a broader recalibration in how markets worth threat belongings in an period of elevated uncertainty.
Bitcoin can also be approaching a fifth straight weekly decline, a streak final seen between March and Might 2022.
Geopolitical tensions have strengthened the U.S. greenback and crude oil costs, tightening monetary situations and weighing on threat belongings.
But, this downturn stands out for one more cause: bitcoin’s uneven relationship with equities. Whereas U.S. shares have remained comparatively resilient, BTC has sharply underperformed, marking an uncommon interval of instability in its conventional risk-asset correlation.
Confronting arguments
“Bitcoin doesn’t have a story proper now, and it’s getting squeezed from either side,” Jonatan Randin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, stated in an e mail to CoinDesk.
Randin pointed to mounting macro strain, together with $3.8 billion in ETF outflows over the previous 5 weeks, escalating tariff tensions and a Federal Reserve that has but to sign imminent charge cuts.
Whereas gold has attracted safe-haven flows and equities have ridden AI momentum, bitcoin has lagged. “Gold is up roughly 48% since September whereas bitcoin has fallen about 41% over the identical interval,” Randin stated, explaining that the divergence exhibits buyers are nonetheless treating BTC as a liquidity-sensitive threat asset quite than digital gold.
The correlation image has been unstable. “The 20-day BTC-Nasdaq correlation swung from -0.68 to +0.72 between early and mid-February. That’s not decorrelation, that’s instability,” Randin stated. “When the risk-on commerce is working, and one asset will get left behind, that’s often weak point, not power.”
The narrative “hasn’t modified since 2009. It’s a international, impartial various to debt-based fiat programs,” based on Greenspan.
Decorrelations are usually not random
“When correlations break throughout regime shifts, it’s often not random. It’s early repricing,” Greenspan stated. “If equities are nonetheless being handled as cyclical progress publicity whereas bitcoin begins buying and selling extra like a sovereign hedge, that divergence is structurally bullish.”
Regardless of the dimensions of the drawdown, Randin cautioned in opposition to assuming the correction is over.
“Bitcoin’s now declined 52% from the October highs,” he stated. “That feels like so much, however once you have a look at prior bear markets the place we’ve seen drawdowns of 80% or extra, we might realistically be solely midway by this correction.”
He added that whereas the weekly relative power index (RSI) has fallen to its lowest studying in bitcoin’s historical past and accumulator addresses have absorbed roughly 372,000 BTC since late December, alerts typically related to cycle bottoms, comparable situations in previous downturns had been adopted by one other 30% to 40% drop earlier than a definitive low fashioned.
Greenspan, nevertheless, stated sentiment could already replicate a lot of the pessimism. “When sentiment will get this uniformly unfavorable whereas long-term fundamentals stay intact, reversals are typically sharp,” he stated.
Till bitcoin can reclaim the $68,000–$72,000 zone, Randin stated, “I’d anticipate this streak to grind on quite than break cleanly.” He recognized $60,000 as a key near-term help degree, with the 200-week shifting common close to $58,500 slightly below it.
“The dropping streak narrative focuses on 5 months,” Greenspan added. “The structural story spans many years.”