After dumping to $60,000 throughout the early February crash, bitcoin rebounded swiftly and jumped to virtually $83,000 per week in the past, posting a large 38% improve. This triggered many analysts to take a position whether or not the bear market had ended.
Nonetheless, the value motion up to now few days has been contradictory, and BTC slipped to a two-week low of $78,000 yesterday. Analysts are usually not so satisfied now that the underside is in, and listed here are a few of their warning photographs.
P/L at Excessive Ranges
Ali Martinez introduced up the common dealer’s realized revenue margin, which has reached 17%. He believes this can be a “main warning signal” because the metric has hit its highest stage since October 2025, shortly earlier than the large crash that worn out over $19 billion in leveraged positions and was the start of a protracted downtrend that culminated (for now) with a 53% drop from $126,000 to $60,000. He defined that for the reason that common investor is now sitting on substantial features, they may be “trying to exit.”
“What stands out to me is the historic context. The final time revenue margins hit 17% whereas Bitcoin was testing its 200-day shifting common as resistance was in March 2022.
That particular alignment signaled the precise second the native high was in earlier than the downtrend resumed in earnest.”
Physician Revenue Nonetheless Bearish
One of many few analysts who hasn’t modified their perspective on the present market setting is Physician Revenue. His bearish predictions started across the October 2025 peak, and, as his newest submit exhibits, he has been placing his cash the place his mouth is, shorting the cryptocurrency from $120,000.
Furthermore, the analyst warned per week in the past that the rebound to $80,000 may be one other bear entice. His new bearish targets are a drop to $50,000 and even decrease if the broader macro situations worsen.
In his newest submit, he warned as soon as once more that the majority merchants are “not prepared for what’s coming.” The chart above doubles down on a path towards $50,000.
$BTC: Nobody is prepared for whats coming , the present standing is as observe:
1. Brief from 120k
2. Lengthy from 71k (30% Closed)
3. Lengthy from 75k (30% Closed)
4. Shorts accrued at 82k (30%)
5. Remaining brief orders lively (70%)Once more, most not prepared for whats coming pic.twitter.com/oB5N0aTK7m
— Physician Revenue
(@DrProfitCrypto) Might 16, 2026
(@DrProfitCrypto) Historical past to Be Invalidated
Rekt Capital additionally weighed in on whether or not BTC might need bottomed throughout this cycle, however appeared extremely skeptical. The analyst famous that if traders imagine BTC gained’t go under $60,000, then they have to imagine within the following:
– The Bear Market has shortened to simply 1/3 of the same old time it takes for Bitcoin to backside
– That there was a drastic shallowing throughout Bear Market corrections by ~25% (whereas the historic distinction in shallowing throughout Bear Cycles has been as much as ~10%)
– The earlier Bull Market by no means ended, that value is at present recovering from a Bull Market correction and that the earlier Bull Cycle has lengthened by over 200 days
If bitcoin has certainly bottomed, which doesn’t appear to be the case in keeping with Rekt Capital’s estimations, then the long-standing rules of BTC market cycles have been invalidated, which is “probabilistically unlikely till confirmed in any other case,” the analyst concluded.
The submit 3 Main Warning Indicators Recommend Bitcoin’s Backside Is Nonetheless Not In appeared first on CryptoPotato.