Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite tv for pc firm SpaceX is planning a $75 billion IPO in June, which may make it the biggest near-term public itemizing with a serious Bitcoin treasury.
Key takeaways:
- A Nasdaq 100 quick entry may broaden Bitcoin publicity among the many high mega-cap shares, together with Tesla.
- The IPO could strain tech shares as passive funds promote current Nasdaq names to purchase SpaceX, which can show bearish for Bitcoin.
SpaceX IPO set to extend Nasdaq’s publicity to Bitcoin
SpaceX disclosed 18,712 BTC in its latest S-1 submitting, price roughly $1.45 billion, making it the biggest recognized Bitcoin holder amongst firms getting ready for, or lately submitting for, a public itemizing.
Supply: SpaceX’s S1 Submitting
Beneath Nasdaq’s newer “quick entry” guidelines, mega-cap IPOs can enter the Nasdaq 100 inside 15 buying and selling days, that means SpaceX may rapidly turn into one of many index’s largest constituents if its valuation lands close to the $1.75 trillion–$2 trillion vary after the $75 billion IPO.
In consequence, Bitcoin publicity contained in the Nasdaq 100 could broaden past Tesla.
The electrical carmaker already holds 11,509 BTC on its stability sheet. SpaceX, with 18,712 BTC, would give the Nasdaq 100 a second Elon Musk-linked mega-cap firm with direct Bitcoin publicity.
“With the SpaceX IPO, the Magazine 7 will turn into the Magazine 8,” mentioned Phong Le, CEO of Technique, whereas referring to the elite group of mega-cap tech shares, specifically Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla.
He added:
“25% of the Magazine 8 can have Bitcoin on their stability sheet.”
Bitcoin nonetheless faces draw back dangers
SpaceX IPO could also be “unhealthy information for tech shares,” in accordance with analyst Nic Puckrin.
“If it is added to the Nasdaq 100 in a ‘quick entry’, passive funds have to purchase it & promote different inventory,” Puckrin mentioned in a Friday publish, including:
“The upper SpaceX goes, the extra they purchase of it and promote of others. It is going to act like an enormous capital vacuum.”
Puckrin based mostly his outlook on JPMorgan estimates displaying that Nvidia may face greater than $20 billion in passive outflows if SpaceX enters the Nasdaq 100.
JPMorgan projections for rebalancing outflows from passive traders. Supply: Monetary Occasions/Nic Puckrin
Apple may face roughly $16 billion in estimated passive outflows, with Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta and Tesla additionally more likely to function funding sources for the SpaceX rebalance.
Bitcoin has traded carefully with mega-cap tech for many of 2026.
As of Friday, BTC’s 30-day rolling correlation with the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS), which tracks the Magazine 7 shares, stood close to +0.81.
BTC/USD vs. MAGS correlation coefficient. Supply: TradingView
For merchants, which means BTC has lately moved in the identical path as main tech shares as a rule.
So, if the SpaceX rebalance pressures Nvidia, Apple, Tesla and different massive tech names, Bitcoin may face short-term draw back threat as traders cut back publicity to the broader risk-on commerce.
How low can BTC worth go?
On-chain metrics present Bitcoin’s obvious demand has dropped to its lowest in 4 months, which can result in months of consolidation.
That weak demand backdrop additionally strains up with BTC’s present technical construction. Since February, Bitcoin has been transferring inside an upward-sloping bear flag, a sample that usually kinds throughout a pause in a broader downtrend.
For now, BTC’s speedy draw back goal sits across the $73,000–$74,000 vary, close to the flag’s decrease trendline. A rebound from that space may ship the value again towards the flag’s higher boundary close to $85,000.
BTC/USD every day chart. Supply: TradingView
Associated: Bitcoin liquidity stability hints at creating rally towards $80K
The flag setup may open the door to a deeper decline towards $56,000, based mostly on the sample’s measured transfer, if BTC closes decisively underneath the decrease development line.