Actual Imaginative and prescient Chief Crypto Analyst Jamie Coutts says Bitcoin is shifting right into a extra enticing long-term setup, however a serious US Treasury refinancing wall should still stand between the market and a sturdy bullish reversal.
In a submit on X, Coutts stated Bitcoin’s long-term technical backdrop is starting to resemble the form of construction that may precede a cycle backside. “I’ll be the primary to show bullish on Bitcoin when the long-term technicals hit exhaustion and the pattern turns,” he wrote. “I’ve argued Q2/Q3 would mark the underside based mostly on historic bear-market buildings. Its enjoying out that means. The relative setup is approaching very enticing ranges. The asset is within the long-term accumulation zone, imo.”
US Debt Refinancing Wall Might Stress Bitcoin
The problem, in Coutts’ view, just isn’t merely Bitcoin’s chart. It’s the macro plumbing round it.
He pointed to 2027, when the US faces $3.67 trillion in coupon maturities, a determine he stated is 36% above the 2020–2025 common. The refinancing burden displays the repricing of Covid-era debt issued when charges have been close to zero right into a market the place charges are actually within the 4% to five% vary.
For Bitcoin and different threat property, the priority is whether or not present liquidity circumstances can take in that stage of issuance with out stress within the Treasury market. Coutts argued that liquidity stays a constraint, significantly as capital has continued to rotate away from crypto since late 2025.
“Retail and insto flows have been rotating out of Bitcoin and crypto since This fall 2025,” he stated. “Each marginal unit of liquidity has flowed into AI buildout property. That is sensible. Capital flows to the place it’s handled greatest. Proper now, the capital allocation argument sits with AI equities and commodities. On-chain exercise is again at multi-year lows.”
That rotation issues as a result of Bitcoin’s bull phases have traditionally depended not solely on inside crypto positioning, but additionally on broader liquidity enlargement and threat urge for food. Coutts’ level is that Bitcoin could also be getting into a structurally enticing zone on the identical time liquidity stays scarce and competing asset lessons are absorbing the obtainable capital.
He additionally pushed again in opposition to the market’s give attention to IPO issuance, arguing that the bigger challenge is the federal government refinancing burden and the power of the monetary system to intermediate it. “Whereas the market fixates on IPO issuance,” he wrote, “what issues me about all threat property is that markets ex-crypto don’t appear bothered by the truth that present liquidity ranges can’t simply take in this refi provide.”
The complication is the Fed’s steadiness sheet. Coutts famous that Kevin Warsh needs a smaller steadiness sheet, including one other potential constraint if policymakers attempt to roll a big maturity wall by a system with decreased central financial institution liquidity.
“Sure, they are going to proceed to stuff the quick finish and monetise by the banks,” Coutts stated, including that stablecoins are prone to play an “more and more necessary function.” However he warned that rolling $3.67 trillion of maturities by a contracting Fed steadiness sheet “with out a bond market accident could be among the many most spectacular acts of fiscal/financial coverage administration in a era.”
The implication for Bitcoin is nuanced. Coutts just isn’t dismissing the bottoming case. He’s arguing that the market should still want a macro set off earlier than the following sustained advance can take maintain. In his framework, Bitcoin is prone to sense a shift in Fed-side liquidity earlier than different property, however that shift could not arrive till stress seems in Treasuries.
“I don’t see how they do it with out much more Fed-side liquidity,” he wrote. “Bitcoin will detect it first. However there’s nonetheless an uncomfortable distance to journey. Treasuries might want to begin misbehaving earlier than the coverage needle strikes. That’s the difficult half.”
At press time, BTC traded at $63,196.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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