Customary Chartered’s world head of digital belongings analysis, Geoffrey Kendrick, declared in a June 12 shopper observe that bitcoin’s drop to roughly $59,000 marks the definitive cycle backside.
The analyst pointed to a 53% decline from bitcoin’s October 2025 peak of $126,000 and mentioned he doesn’t count on costs to breach the $59,000 degree once more this cycle.
The $100K year-end goal
Customary Chartered set a year-end 2026 worth goal of $100,000, implying roughly 70% upside from present ranges close to $63,000.
The financial institution beforehand held even loftier targets, together with $150,000, which had been adjusted downward as situations deteriorated.
Kendrick wrote in his observe:
“Winter is over. Welcome again to crypto Spring.”
He added:
“After we look again on the finish of 2026 with Bitcoin at $100k we’ll say this was the shopping for zone all of us needed.”
Affirmation indicators nonetheless lacking
Kendrick outlined particular situations that have to materialize earlier than the restoration thesis good points actual traction.
First, renewed ETF inflows — June 2026 has already seen greater than $2 billion in outflows, an indication that institutional buyers are pulling again reasonably than accumulating.
Second, company treasury purchases from firms like Technique and its imitators.
Third, reducing oil costs tied to a possible U.S.-Iran peace deal, which may ease inflation and provides central banks room to chop charges.
Historic context for the drawdown
Bitcoin’s 53% correction is brutal by conventional requirements however comparatively modest in comparison with prior cycles.
The 2017–2018 bear market noticed an 84% drawdown, whereas the 2021–2022 cycle delivered roughly 77%.
Leverage throughout exchanges has additionally been considerably diminished, with merchants unwinding positions in what usually indicators capitulation.
Customary Chartered has constantly framed every correction as a possible accumulation alternative reasonably than a motive to exit.