Joerg Hiller
Jun 25, 2026 16:14
After Scotland’s 3-0 loss to Brazil left them seventh amongst third-placed groups, Steve Clarke stated he thinks they’re heading residence as qualification hinges on different outcomes.
World Cup 2026: Polymarket Costs Iraq at 98.45% to Exit within the Group Stage
Polymarket merchants are pricing Iraq as a near-certain Group Stage elimination on the 2026 World Cup, with the “World Cup: Iraq Stage of Elimination” ladder contract leaning closely towards an early exit. The positioning comes as group-stage outcomes elsewhere underline how slender the margins may be for groups attempting to advance into the knockout bracket.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket costs Iraq being eradicated within the Group Stage at 98.45% (Sure 98.45 / No 1.55).
- The contract’s ladder is overwhelmingly skewed towards an early exit, with deep knockout outcomes priced close to zero as compared.
- The market is scheduled to resolve on 2026-07-19 19:00:00 UTC.
Scotland’s path to the 2026 World Cup knockout rounds tightened after a 3-0 loss to Brazil that left Steve Clarke’s crew seventh within the desk of the perfect third-placed sides. Scotland completed their group on three factors behind Brazil and Morocco and may solely attain the final 32 by staying among the many high eight third-placed groups within the 12-team desk. Clarke stated he believed Scotland had been heading residence, whereas captain John McGinn stated qualification now appeared unlikely and would require different outcomes to go their method. A report cited an Opta estimate of Scotland’s qualification probabilities at 23.8% and stated bookmakers had Scotland priced to exit within the group stage. The replace additionally pointed to imminent Group E matches, the place Scotland wanted particular outcomes elsewhere to stay above competing third-placed groups.
Market Snapshot: $411K Quantity Skews to Group Stage “Sure” as Spherical of 32 Sits at 1.2%
On Polymarket, the ladder is dominated by the Group Stage line, with Group Stage Sure at 98.45% versus No at 1.55% on $411,018 of quantity. Merchants assign just one.2% Sure (98.8% No) to Iraq being eradicated within the Spherical of 32, and simply 0.4% Sure (99.6% No) to eliminations within the Spherical of 16 and the Semifinals. Longer-shot outcomes stay tiny, with Iraq to win the event priced at 0.25% Sure versus 99.75% No, indicating the order ebook is concentrated round an early-exit baseline reasonably than any deep-run state of affairs.
Watch whether or not liquidity shifts away from the Group Stage strike towards Spherical of 32 or deeper outcomes as group-stage permutations make clear forward of the contract’s 2026-07-19 decision.
Past World Cup Futures: Different Excessive-Quantity Polymarket Contracts Merchants Are Watching Right now
Past team-by-team elimination ladders, Polymarket circulation can be clustering in broader event props and group markets the place positioning can shift rapidly on new outcomes. Within the $3,121,241,242 World Cup Winner contract, France leads at 19.25%, whereas Golden Boot pricing has Lionel Messi on high at 35.65% alongside $31,650,083 in quantity. Merchants are additionally piling into higher-conviction traces comparable to World Cup: Group to advance to Knockout Phases, with Switzerland marked at 100.0% on $13,760,865, and World Cup: Nation To Attain Spherical of 16, the place France sits at 88.0% on $1,904,641.
Odds Development
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: World Cup: Iraq Stage of Elimination
- Contract kind: Value strike ladder: every rung has separate Sure/No; Sure means the spot worth is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Decision window: Jul 19, 2026 (UTC)
- Standing: Lively (open for buying and selling)
- Quantity: ~$411,018
Prime strike rungs
| Strike | Sure | No |
|---|---|---|
| Group Stage | 98.5% | 1.6% |
| Different | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Spherical of 32 | 1.2% | 98.8% |
| Spherical of 16 | 0.4% | 99.6% |
+4 extra strikes not proven
Associated Markets
Sources
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Picture supply: Shutterstock