BofA sees 75 bps Fed hikes as Polymarket retains 2026 no-cuts at 77%

Financial institution of America Sees 75 bps Fed Hikes; Polymarket “0 Fee Cuts in 2026” Odds Slip to 77.35%

Financial institution of America raised its international development outlook and mentioned it expects the Federal Reserve to ship a cumulative 75 foundation factors of fee hikes whilst inflation eases. On Polymarket’s “What number of Fed fee cuts in 2026?” ladder, the market nonetheless costs no cuts because the dominant final result, although the implied odds have slipped to 77.35%.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket costs 0 Fed fee cuts in 2026 at 77.35% (Sure) versus 22.65% (No).
• The contract repriced decrease as a financial institution forecast argued for higher-for-longer coverage, together with 75 bps of Fed hikes regardless of easing inflation.
• The market resolves on 2026-12-31, and the main final result is down from 82.10% to 77.35%.

Financial institution of America raised its outlook for international development and maintained a view that the Federal Reserve might nonetheless tighten coverage regardless of indicators that inflation is easing. The financial institution forecast a cumulative 75 foundation factors of Fed fee hikes, pointing to resilience that might maintain coverage restrictive. The decision contrasts with expectations in some corners of the market that easing inflation would pave the way in which for fee cuts. The up to date outlook underscores how sticky development and coverage uncertainty can maintain the trail of rates of interest contested. The financial institution’s view highlights a situation wherein cuts are deferred as policymakers stay centered on retaining inflation pressures contained.

Polymarket Fed Cuts Ladder: $39.47M Quantity as “0 Cuts” Leads (77.35%) Forward of “1 Lower” (12.50%) and “2 Cuts” (4.25%)

Polymarket’s ladder exhibits the “0 (0 bps)” strike at 77.35% Sure and 22.65% No, retaining “no cuts” firmly in entrance even after a pullback from 82.10% beforehand. The following rungs are priced far decrease: “1 (25 bps)” sits at 12.50% Sure versus 87.50% No, and “2 (50 bps)” at 4.25% Sure versus 95.75% No. Longer-shot tails are practically written off, with “3 (75 bps)” at 0.95% Sure/99.05% No and “4 (100 bps)” at 0.45% Sure/99.55% No. Whole matched quantity stands at $39,466,206, indicating heavy positioning concentrated across the no-cuts baseline into the 2026-12-31 decision.

Watch whether or not the ladder’s “1 (25 bps)” and “2 (50 bps)” strikes achieve share from the “0 (0 bps)” line, and whether or not quantity accelerates as merchants specific extra convex views on the variety of cuts into the 2026-12-31 decision.

Macro Watchlist: Different Excessive-Quantity Polymarket Contracts Merchants Are Monitoring Past Fed Fee Cuts

Past the rate-cut ladder, merchants are additionally clustering in adjoining macro timing bets on Polymarket, together with 81.5% on “Fed Resolution in July?” for “No change” as $22,400,504 in quantity concentrates across the near-term coverage path. The combination of long-dated and meeting-by-meeting positioning underscores how members are hedging each the vacation spot and the cadence of the following transfer, whereas maintaining a tally of fast-moving geopolitical and cross-asset contracts that may rapidly reshape the macro narrative.

Odds Development

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: What number of Fed fee cuts in 2026?
• Contract sort: Value strike ladder: every rung has separate Sure/No; Sure means the spot worth is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Decision window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Standing: Lively (open for buying and selling)
• Quantity: ~$39,466,206

High strike rungs

+9 extra strikes not proven

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Sources

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