Polymarket retains Aug. 31 US–Iran ceasefire odds at 51.5% after 7 nights

Seventh Evening of US–Iran Exchanges Retains Polymarket Ceasefire Ladder Low Close to-Time period, Close to-Coinflip by Aug. 31

Polymarket merchants are pricing a 51.5% probability {that a} US–Iran “efficient ceasefire” is in place by the August 31 rung, on $615,750 in matched quantity. The newest catalyst is recent reporting that the 2 sides have exchanged assaults for a seventh consecutive evening, and the ladder pricing exhibits the place merchants draw the road between “quickly” and “by late August.”

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket’s main rung is “by August 31” at 51.5% Sure (48.5% No).
• After information of a seventh straight evening of exchanges, the curve nonetheless costs low near-term ceasefire odds whereas preserving a near-coinflip by Aug. 31.
• The market is energetic and resolves by 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC; the previous 24h exhibits -2.0pp with a reversal flagged.

A reside replace report says the US and Iran have exchanged assaults for a seventh consecutive evening, extending the present run of hostilities. The merchandise frames the scenario as ongoing and unresolved within the close to time period.

Odds Ladder & Liquidity Verify: $615,750 Matched as July 18 at 2% Sure vs Aug. 31 at 51.5% Sure (-2.0pp, reversal_detected)

This can be a price-ladder market: every date is its personal Sure/No contract on whether or not an “efficient ceasefire” is achieved by that deadline, not a single guess on which date will occur. The curve is steep on the entrance finish—July 18 is 2.0% Sure / 98.0% No and July 24 is 14.5% Sure / 85.5% No—whereas later rungs transfer towards a coin flip, with August 14 at 32.5% Sure / 67.5% No and August 31 main at 51.5% Sure / 48.5% No. Regardless of $615,750 in quantity, the headline rung is flat on the snapshot (51.5% vs 51.5%), and the 24h/7d learn is barely decrease at -2.0pp with “reversal_detected: true,” suggesting latest two-way repricing relatively than a one-direction drift. The historic abstract additionally exhibits the newest odds (51.5%) sitting beneath the common of the final 5 factors (55.9), in step with a modest pullback whilst consensus is tagged “steady,” which inserts a market that agrees on “not imminently” however is cut up on “by late August.”

Watch whether or not pricing compresses between the August 14 (32.5% Sure) and August 31 (51.5% Sure) rungs—tightening would suggest merchants are shifting likelihood mass towards a narrower timeline. Additionally look ahead to modifications within the 24h change metric and whether or not the “reversal_detected” flag persists as new info arrives earlier than the 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC decision deadline.

What Merchants Watch Subsequent on Polymarket: Associated Macro and Crypto Contracts to Hedge Geopolitical Threat Shocks

Past the ceasefire ladder, merchants usually scan adjoining Polymarket contracts that reprice the identical danger from totally different angles and timelines. Large-volume sentiment is concentrated in 71.5% on “Will the U.S. invade Iran earlier than 2027?” ($44,192,504) and 89.5% on “Will the Iranian regime fall earlier than 2027?” ($22,319,841), whereas the near-term transport channel is closely skewed with 98.75% on “Strait of Hormuz site visitors returns to regular by July 31?” ($17,595,438). Longer-horizon political continuity additionally has a transparent favourite at 77.35% for “Iran chief finish of 2026?” ($30,410,638), giving merchants a number of methods to hedge or categorical views as headlines hit.

Odds Development

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: US x Iran Efficient Ceasefire by…? (2 week pause)
• Contract sort: Value strike ladder: every rung has separate Sure/No; Sure means the spot value is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Decision window: Aug 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Standing: Lively (open for buying and selling)
• Quantity: ~$615,750

Prime strike rungs

+1 extra strikes not proven

Associated Information